Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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397 FXUS64 KHGX 200725 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Patchy fog will be possible once again later this morning, but not expecting it to be quite as widespread or dense with surface conditions being a little bit drier than previous nights. Locations west of I-45 have the best chance of seeing fog development mainly between the timeframe of 5-9AM. Hot and dry conditions persist as we kick off the new work week, but we`ll at least have a southerly breeze to work with. Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure developing in the Texas Panhandle. This`ll tighten the pressure gradient a bit leading to southerly/southeasterly winds around 10 mph throughout the day. We`re still going to see temperatures top out in the low 90s, but 90s with a breeze feels waaay better than the low 90s with no wind. Heat index values will still be in the upper 90s though. That onshore flow will come back to haunt us tomorrow with increasing humidity leading to even higher heat index values. Temperatures during the overnight hours will continue to be well above normal with lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight and solidly in the upper 70s on Tuesday night. We get even breezier on Tuesday as a shortwave trough pushing through the Four Corners region generates another (and slightly stronger) surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies. The deepening of this surface low will lead to southeasterly winds around 15 mph throughout the day. Being in the warm sector of this surface low allows for moisture to increase even further. PW values will be in the 1.3-1.7" range by Tuesday afternoon (75th percentile: ~1.60"). There will also be a 20-25 kt LLJ overhead and some upper level diffluence, but with subsidence from the ridging aloft and a very robust capping inversion aloft around 850mb...don`t expect to see anything more than a higher percentage of cloud cover sticking around through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will still top out in the low 90s Tuesday, but with the added humidity it`ll feel like the triple digits! Heat index values are expected to be in the 99-103F range, so heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 With mid/upper level ridging situated to our south and southwest throughout this period, there are some indications in a couple of the latest model runs that we might have to keep an eye on possible shower/storm development from around midweek and on into the weekend. The latest NBM continues its dry trend with only low rain chances Thursday afternoon/evening, and will stick with this for now. As has been advertised, the main concern will be the heat. High temperatures will be in the 90s, and heat index values will generally be in a 95 to 105 range (and possible getting close to heat advisory values on Monday...a week from today). Little relief will come overnight as morning lows by the end of the week and especially over the weekend will range from the low to mid 70s up north to the upper 70s to around 80 central and south. As exactly stated above and for several days now...heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected through Mon evening. There is the chance for MVFR cigs early in the morning along with the development of patchy fog over portions of SE TX, but is expected to lift and disperse near sunrise. Light SE winds through around 14Z, strengthening to around 10 KTS thereafter. Winds are expected to stay elevated through Mon night. MVFR cigs are expected to develop Mon night into early Tue. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light to mostly moderate onshore winds can be expected through much of this week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times around midweek as the onshore flow increases and seas rise. 42 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Monday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate to Minor - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast) MINOR// ------- - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor (forecast) Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 91 75 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 78 85 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$