226
FXUS66 KHNX 161002
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
302 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Afternoon temperatures will remain well above seasonal
values through Sunday.

2. Strong wind gusts will impact the Mojave Desert Slopes this
evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued in this area for
this evening.

3. A slight cooling trend is expected to take place early next
week.

4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level pattern is a bit of a mess this morning. An open
wave exiting into Texas to the east and a offshore upper low
near 30N/130W. The Golden State remains between the two with
rising heights from weakening ridge over the eastern Pacific.
The probability of thunder is near zero this afternoon for the
Sierra.

The Mojave Slopes remain between the low pressure over the
Colorado River Basin between Nevada and Arizona and surface high
pressure over the Pacific. The surface gradient and nocturnal
downslope from the Kern County Mountains keep reasonable
confidence in advisory level wind gusts especially along Highway
58 and Highway 14. Short term model Ensemble probabilities are
60% to near 100% for PoE`s of 45 mph from 7 PM to 1 AM and then
decreasing towards sunrise. Timing is consistent from last
night and seems reasonable to continue the advisory.

Wednesday maximum temperatures saw China Lake NAF hit 99. The
PoE of 100*F for China Lake today is only 6%. In the San Joaquin
Valley (SJV) below a 1000 feet in elevation saw widespread low
90s with no first order station breeching the 95*F mark.
Locations below 1000 feet this afternoon PoE of 95*F range from
31%-41% with the best probabilities falling on Lemoore NAS and
Fresno. This seems fairly reasonable with a slight increase in
heights and a little less afternoon cloud cover from any Sierra
convective activity that floats over the valley.

On Friday central California falls between a strong wave passing
over Idaho and Montana extending down into northern Nevada and
the upper low wandering around 30N/130W. Upper level heights
fall a tad for a slight down tick in temperatures by 2-3 degrees
with no significant change from Thursday afternoon. The PoE of
95*F falls down to 15%-30% for the SJV. Even the PoE of 90*F
falls to 36% to 86% with Fresno, Bakersfield, and Delano with
the highest PoE of 90. The Mojave Slopes are expected to be
gusty again with the nocturnal downslope winds, however the low
pressure over the Colorado River Basin weakens enough not to
warrant an advisory with probabilities of exceeding 45 mph well
below 40%. In the Sierra CAPE does show some 250-500 J/KG
however thunder probabilities remain sub 15%.

Saturday a very weak upper level disturbance slips through the
region for another tweak down on heights. However, PoE of 90*F
ranges from 45% to 71% for the SJV below 1000 feet in elevation.
The highlight in the forecast is an increased thunderstorm
probability. The probability of thunder for Sequoia, Kings
Canyon, and Yosemite NPs increases to 20% to 30% as CAPE
increases slightly and the passing upper wave has a better
potential of igniting some thunder. Valley and Desert locations
remain with near zero probability of thunder. Mojave Slopes
remain gusty in the evening to the early overnight hours,
however the position of the Colorado River Basin thermal low
looks to not be in a favorable spot for advisory level winds.

Sunday features a strong upper trough moving into northern
California that ushers in the nudging down of temperatures for
the region. Other than some lowering of upper heights and small
around of CAPE around the probability of thunder reduces below
10% for the Sierra. Depending on the thermal trough or low setup
in the Deserts the Mojave wind will have a probability of
hitting 45 mph or greater that is non-zero on Sunday evening.

On Monday a piece of upper energy slides through the NW flow
aloft that brings a better, however not great, probability of
thunder to the highest elevations of the Sierra. The main impact
will be nudging down to near normal temperatures for the SJV
with highs in the mid to upper 80s hitting on the highest
probability with PoE of 90*F fall below 30% in the hot spots and
most locations sub 15%. The Mojave Slopes remain with the status
quo of "maybe, possibly" on nocturnal winds at advisory levels.

Tuesday through Thursday features NW flow for Central California
and the Sierra. The best energy from upper waves remains in far
northern California and Pacific NW. The story line for the SJV,
desert, and Sierra is slight above normal temperatures. Only
impacts maybe from the Mojave Slopes with wind gusts in the
evening. Otherwise, not much in the probability of thunder with
the Sierra having less than 5%. Cluster analysis concurs with
the flow pattern keep confidence in the moderate level with the
mid to late term of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Localized gap winds on the lee side of the Sierra and Kern
County mountains 02Z-12Z.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/15/2024 14:40
EXPIRES: 05/16/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS....DCH

weather.gov/hanford