Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
998 FXUS66 KHNX 192155 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 255 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Gusty westerly winds will continue to develop across the Kern County mountains and desert each afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes from 5 PM this afternoon through 8 AM Monday morning. 2. Temperatures will change little today then lower to near normal Monday. A slight warming trend is expected midweek then cooling again to slightly below normal by next weekend. 3. There is a 10 percent chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra crest around Yosemite National Park Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... The center of an upper level low pressure system is currently located over northern Montana, with the trough extending into the western United States. The cyclonic flow around this system is creating north to northwesterly flow over central California. This flow is expected to continue through much of this upcoming week as the upper low remains relatively stationary in the northern plains and southern Canada. A subtle cooldown will result from these northerly winds aloft, bringing temperatures nearer to season normals in the low to mid 80s. A hint of an upper level ridge will make an appearance Tuesday and Wednesday before near-normal temperatures take hold again moving into the late week and weekend. The following are probabilities from the NBM to exceed 90 degrees in select locations of the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday. Delano 66% Bakersfield 61% Fresno 61% Hanford 61% Lemoore 61% Visalia 61% Madera 46% Merced 46% Porterville 46% Reedley36% With near-constant west to northwest winds at the surface, stronger wind gusts are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this area from 5 PM PDT this afternoon until 8 AM PDT tomorrow morning due to sustained winds 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts up to 55 miles per hour expected. Additional advisories may be considered through the remainder of the week as model guidance indicates these stronger winds may continue each day. The following is NBM ensemble output for maximum probabilities in the Mojave Desert Slopes for wind gusts greater than 55 miles per hour through the week. Monday 97% Tuesday 14% Wednesday 77% Thursday 66% Friday 54% Saturday 83% Sunday 50% Moisture convergence along the crest of the Sierra Nevada on Monday will bring a slight chance for showers with a few strong thunderstorms possible. There is currently a 10 to15 percent chance for isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra crest around Yosemite National Park Monday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/19/2024 12:40 EXPIRES: 05/20/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation...SM weather.gov/hanford