Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
810 FXUS66 KHNX 012015 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Seven to ten degrees above normal temperatures will continue this afternoon. 2. Gusty west winds will develop tonight through Sunday morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes. 3. Following a cool down early next week, a more significant warming trend will take place next week with probabilities of exceeding 105 degrees at 35 to 65 percent for most of the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert on Wednesday and Thursday. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for these areas. 4. The anticipated heat for later next week could lead to increased snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada with colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION... High temperatures today will remain around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Many areas in the San Joaquin Valley look to see high temperatures in the mid to high 90s. The ridge currently impacting the area is moving eastward across the United States and will be followed with a shallow trough and zonal flow, which will cool temperatures tomorrow through Monday. Temperatures tomorrow and Monday will cool to just near normal for this time of year. As the transition between ridge and trough happens tonight into the weekend, winds in their usual gusty areas, the Mojave Desert Slopes, will be elevated through this evening and into tomorrow morning. Probabilities for gusts near 50 mph in and around Mojave through the afternoon and evening currently hover around 70%. As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes from 5pm this afternoon through 8am tomorrow morning. The shallow trough and zonal flow will begin to transition to a ridge on Tuesday, and by Wednesday will have strengthened considerably. This strong ridge of high pressure aloft will result in our first heatwave of the year. Temperatures will rise 4-6 degrees from Monday to Tuesday, and then rise 10-15 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday, a considerable increase. Many places in the San Joaquin Valley have high percentages for seeing 105 degrees as a high on Wednesday and Thursday. Due to model confidence around these temperatures next week, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert from 11 am PDT Wednesday through 8 pm PDT Thursday. This will result in a moderate heat risk for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert, meaning everyone without access to adequate cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat related illnesses. Here are probabilities that specific areas within the San Joaquin Valley will see temperatures of 105 degrees or above on Wednesday: Bakersfield: 51% Fresno: 51% Lemoore: 51% Hanford: 41% Delano: 41% Visalia: 51% Merced: 41% Madera: 36% Porterville: 41% Because of these hot temperatures in the valley and temperatures above 70 degrees in much of the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, snowmelt will occur throughout these two days. This snowmelt will lead to rapid currents along streams and rivers. These currents are extremely cold and dangerous, and could be life threatening. Plan to take extensive precautionary measures if you plan on getting in the water next weekend and heed any and all lake and river closures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds near 48 knots are possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes from 0Z this evening through 15Z tomorrow morning. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/31/2024 15:53 EXPIRES: 06/01/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for CAZ301>307-309>317-319-321-337-339. && $$ public/aviation...AS PIO/IDSS..........DCH weather.gov/hanford