Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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348 FXUS64 KHUN 230637 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 With a weak area of high pressure remaining layered across parts of the eastern half of the region, quiet/seasonably mild wx conditions prevail into the early morning hrs this Mon. Some light fog is again possible during the early morning period, but any fog should quickly diminish/lift with the onset of the daytime hrs. Low chances of showers/tstms are then possible later today, mainly north of the TN River, as a weak upper disturbance traverses NE into mid TN. Afternoon highs look to climb predom into the lower 90s/near 90F, with the region remaining under the influence of an upper ridge axis over the western/central Gulf Coast areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Any lingering showers/tstms should then quickly taper off early this evening over southern mid TN, as the upper ridge to the south allows for one more relatively quiet/seasonably mild night. Lows into early Tue look to again fall mainly into the mid 60s/near 70F for most spots. The overall wx pattern will then begin to change starting Tue, as the ridge axis weakens and an upper low/trough pattern drops into the Midwest/Mid South states. A developing low-level SW flow will allow PWs to climb into the 1.6-1.7" range during the day Tue. In addition, 0-6km Bulk Shear values will climb into the 30-40kt range, as SBCAPE values increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. All of this should result in low-medium chances of showers/tstms (30-60%), with the higher prob again north of the TN River. The increase in deep layer shear may also allow for a few strong/marginally severe tstms later in the day Tue. Given the increase in clouds/rainfall, highs on Tue look to climb more into the upper 80s/near 90F. Medium to perhaps high chances of showers/tstms (50-70%) will then continue Tue night thru the middle of the week, as the upper low drops into the ArkLaMiss region and a weak cold front out of the NW settles into the area. The increase in cloud cover/rainfall may limit much in the way of additional airmass destabilization, but Bulk Shear values around 40-50kt may still allow for a few strong tstms into the day Wed. The front is expected to stall invof the area past mid week, with medium/high chances for showers/tstms continuing thru the day Thu. Total rainfall amounts from Tue thru Thu could range between 2-3 inches. With the arrival of the weak front plus the clouds/rainfall, highs Wed/Thu may struggle to surpass the 80F mark, while lows thru Wed night trend predom in the mid/upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The long term part of the forecast will be heavily dependent on a potential tropical system out of the western Caribbean that will lift northward potentially making landfall along the eastern Gulf Coast in the Thu night/early Fri time frame. Where this system then tracks will determine how much additional rainfall the mid TN Valley may experience into the first half of the weekend period. If this system tracks more to the NNE versus the NE, the area could see some additional rainfall along with some gusty winds Fri/Fri night. However, a more eastern track may limit the rainfall/winds and provide more of a dry forecast this weekend. Regardless, highs look to remain in the upper 70s/near 80F this weekend, with lows more in the lower/mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 With a weak area of high pressure remaining layered across parts of the region, VFR conds are generally expected thru the period. The exception may be some -br/MVFR vis early Mon morning. Iso shra/tsra are also possible later in the day Mon, but the prob is not high enough to include in the TAFs attm. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...09