600
FXUS64 KHUN 221130
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
630 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to push
into the region early this morning from convection well to the
west of the area over Arkansas. Radar imagery over northern
Mississippi shows some light returns despite the very high cloud
bases and for this reason have a low chance (20-30%) for some
light rain/sprinkles across portions of far northwest Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee between 09-15z, before tapering off by
the late morning and early afternoon. The mid/high clouds will
gradually disperse by the afternoon, but we`ll see partly cloudy
conditions prevail through the remainder of the day. Still, with
breezy southerly winds -- highs will once again climb into the
mid to upper 80s in most locations. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will be largely tied to a cold front well to our north
and west today. While a few diurnal storms are not out of the
question, without a true forcing mechanism, think this activity
will be very isolated (20%) and focused across far northwest
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee -- largely from the late
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Shower/thunderstorm chances will gradually expand overnight as
storms tied to a slow-moving front to our northwest. Sufficient
instability will remain in place to support a strong storm or
two. However, better chances for strong to marginally severe
storms will exist Thursday as the front shift ESE toward the
Tennessee Valley and interacts with a passing shortwave. Shear
profile will be more than sufficient enough to support organized
clusters of storms especially during the afternoon/evening and
portions of the overnight hours -- with damaging winds, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall being the main threats.

The active pattern will continue into the day on Friday as
another sharper shortwave traverses the area, with the combination
of the added shear and thermodynamic environment supporting the
potential for some strong/marginally severe storms during the
afternoon/evening hours (PoPs ~ 40-70%). Medium chances for
showers/storms will continue on Saturday given the environment in
place and some likely residual outflow boundaries across the area.
A subtle ridging axis may stunt convection slightly, especially
with the aforementioned shortwave well to the east. Highs during
this period will be slightly above normal, peaking in the mid 80s
each day in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A more vigorous shortwave will pivot from the central/southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Sunday, bringing
widespread convection to portions of the Mid South and lower Ohio
Valley -- including the potential for a regional outbreak of
severe weather over those regions. Closer to home here in the
Tennessee Valley, a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will
also exist. Guidance hints at an initial wave of prefrontal
convection during the morning hours on Sunday, followed by an
additional round during the evening hours (into portions of the
overnight hours) directly along the cold front has it pushes
through the area. This second round would be more likely to pose a
threat for severe weather given the potential storm environment in
place. However, it is too early to get too specific on timing
given uncertainties in the evolution of this system and what
exactly the storm environment would support. Still this bears
close watching in the coming days, especially given that it will
occur during the busy Memorial Holiday weekend. Additional chances
for showers and storms will exist Monday (40-60%) and Tuesday
(20-30%) before ridging helps to dry us out by the middle of next
week. By Tuesday, guidance favors a subtle air mass chance as
drier air works its way in and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
will be common.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period, with SSW winds around 10 kts. Cloud
cover will increase overnight as ceilings begin to drop. Low
chances (30-40%) for SHRA/TSRA are forecast late in the period as
the front draws closer and have added a PROB30 to account for this
after 06z at KMSL and after 09z at KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24