Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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259 FXUS64 KHUN 220540 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 940 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will likely continue this evening and into the overnight hours. Light winds should allow for some patchy fog to form, especially west of the I-65 corridor and in portions of southern middle Tennessee. In these areas, pooling of low level moisture near and ahead of a boundary moving into the area should aid fog formation. With that boundary moving into northern Alabama later overnight into daybreak on Sunday, several mesoscale models are hinting at at least some isolated to scattered showers or convection forming. Thus, added a 20 to 30 PoP into the forecast during that time. With fairly weak lift and no shear, not expecting much strong thunderstorm activity, but some lightning and heavy downpours could occur. Not sure if we will see dense fog, but will have to monitor in case that develops. It should be fairly warm and humid when you wake up in southern middle Tennessee and into northwestern Alabama (lows in the 68 to 71 degree range), but further southeast lows should be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The aforementioned upper ridge will generally progress east over the northern Gulf coast through early next week. However, a few subtle shortwaves may bring low chances (10-20%) of showers and a storm or two to areas north of the Tennessee River both Sunday and Monday afternoons. A more significant upper shortwave trough as well as an approaching surface cold front is expected to increase rain chances by Tuesday afternoon (low to medium; 15-40%). No severe weather is forecast at this time. This pattern shift may also cause a decrease in high temperatures, with highs beginning in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and topping out in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon. Lows will continue to be a bit warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, due to elevated moisture through Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week, maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front, with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Light winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies much of the overnight period should allow some MVFR reductions to VSBYS at both terminals between 8Z and 12Z. There is a very low chance (15 to 25%) of SHRA or -TSRA approaching either airport towards daybreak into the early morning hours. However, for now left precipitation out of the forecast for the terminals, due to limited confidence. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...09 AVIATION...KTW