Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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133 FXUS63 KICT 232300 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild temperatures this week with widespread highs in the low to middle 70s. - Isolated (20-30%) chances for showers Tuesday, then again later this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a lifting upper jet max over the Great Lakes as a digging trough is situated over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley as high pressure settles in over the Southern Plains. After a quiet day across Kansas today, the upper trough currently over the northern CONUS is progged to dive into Kansas early Tuesday morning and provide forcing for isolated and low (20-30%) rain chances throughout the day. Activity that manages to develop is not expected to be severe, and coverage to this point looks to be limited to the I-135 corridor east. Consensus among the global deterministic suite for now is that the upper trough will then continue to dive southeast before closing off and spinning over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week and into the weekend. In the wake of this, generally mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected across the forecast area. However, mid-level perturbations coming off the western edge of the circulation may provide support for continued rain chances - especially in east/southeast Kansas - later this week. Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to hint at the possibility of this upper low retrograding back to the west as a tropical system arrives in the southeast CONUS. This will likely lead to continued mild and moist conditions across Kansas through the weekend if this solution pans out. Stay tuned as additional details become available in later forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Low clouds and moist low levels will linger across southeast Kansas through tonight. Meanwhile the combination of radiational cooling, light winds, and recent rainfall could lead to areas of dense fog developing late tonight into Tuesday morning over southeast Kansas. A upper level wave will move slowly southward across eastern Kansas/western Missouri during the day on Tuesday where some diurnally driven rain showers look to develop and affect eastern Kansas in the afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ