Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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731 FXUS63 KICT 241047 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 547 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fall-like temperatures expected over the next week or so. - A few isolated showers possible today. - Potential for increasing rain chances late this week and into the weekend? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Clear skies and light winds have allowed for dense fog to develop across portions of southeast Kansas this morning. After sunrise, this fog is expected to mix out, and visibilities should dramatically improve by mid-morning. Meanwhile, a fairly powerful trough is digging into the central plains early this morning, while a large upper ridge is expanding across the western CONUS. Out ahead of the meridional jet streak diving southward out of the northern CONUS, a few showers have developed across portions of Nebraska. This activity is generally expected to continue moving south/southeast ahead of the nose of this jet streak, and isolated showers will be possible throughout the day across much of the forecast area. There is a narrow window where just enough low level moisture may overlap with cool temperatures aloft (steep lapse rates) to allow for a thunderstorm or two across far eastern Kansas this afternoon. However, instability will be meager at best, so chances for a stray thunderstorm will remain at or below 20%. What the arrival of this trough will also do is establish a secondary push of fall-like air. Although with downsloping off the High Plains later today into the first half of Wednesday, this may actually lead to slightly warmer conditions across the area with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s, especially along and west of the I-135 corridor this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. After Wednesday, a bit of an odd weather pattern will establish itself across the eastern half of the CONUS. Depending on the placement of some key features, it may lead to some unsettled weather during the latter part of the week and into the weekend. Global ensemble and deterministic models are fairly confident that the upper trough digging into the central plains today will eventually become a cutoff upper low over the southeastern CONUS later this week. This is where a couple different scenarios could play out. If the upper low positions itself further east across the Tennessee Valley, warmer and drier conditions would likely prevail across the area late this week and into the weekend. Conversely, if the upper low positions itself across the Ozarks, then cooler and potentially wetter conditions would be expected late this week and into the weekend. This upper low is expected to interact with a tropical system that may potentially (the word "potentially" doing a lot of heavy lifting here) introduce more moisture to the area this weekend as it pivots westward around the northern side of the upper low. It should be noted that the best chances for precipitation during the latter portion of the forecast period will be across eastern Kansas no matter which scenario plays out. This would likely leave central Kansas out of play for any appreciable moisture, an area that definitely needs some drought relief after missing out with the previous storm system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Radiational cooling amidst light winds and moist low-levels will continue to support widespread dense fog over far eastern and southeast Kansas through early this morning. LIFR conditions are likely at the CNU TAF site. Thinking the fog will dissipate by 14z. Meanwhile, shortwave energy approaching from the north will support a band of light rain showers spreading southeast across central and eastern Kansas today. Additionally, cold air aloft and associated marginal instability should support an additional area of hit-or-miss showers/storms over eastern Kansas early to mid-evening, capable of localized gusty winds and brief heavy rain. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ070>072- 094>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...ADK