246
FXUS63 KICT 021123
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active pattern will continue for Today through Tuesday
  across the region with strong to severe storms possible

- A dry and quiet weather pattern looks to be in store for
  Wednesday through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Storms will continue to develop over western and central Kansas
early this morning. They will likely linger into the mid
morning hours, aided by low level jet/moisture transport into a
decent mid-level baroclinic zone. Meanwhile, current early
morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a fairly healthy
looking upper level wave over Arizona. This upper level wave
will migrate east/northeast and reach western Oklahoma late this
afternoon. A second upper level wave will move eastward from
the Rockies across the northern plains. This northern system
will push a cold front southward into Nebraska. These two waves
will encounter deeper moisture continuing to surge northward per
latest surface to 850mb polar orbiting satellite data products.
Thunderstorms should ignite ahead of the cold front in Nebraska
and parts of western Kansas southward into Texas panhandle
later this afternoon. The storms will grow upscale into a
eastward forward propagating MCS across Nebraska and northern
Kansas. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas
later tonight with damaging winds as the main hazard. CAM models
show another possible MCS developing further south in southwest
Kansas/Oklahoma and moving east overnight(could be in response
to the current southwestern upper wave). Also if that southern
MCS scenario happens it could chew up the moisture and toss a
wrench into Monday`s setup for Kansas making things less certain
to predict.

Models show a more robust upper level wave moving across the
northern plains on Tuesday with an associated frontal boundary
moving south into Kansas later in the afternoon. Storms look to
develop along the front in the afternoon and become more numerous
Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe once
again with damaging winds and torrential downpours as the main risk.
Could also see some flooding problems arise for some locations that
see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall for tonight through Tuesday
night.

All model ensemble means show good agreement with a pattern change
to a northwest flow regime aloft for Wednesday-Saturday developing
over the region. This should give way to dry weather and near to
slightly above normal daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR is anticipated through much of the period, but any isolated
or widely scattered storms this morning may result in reduced
flight categories briefly. The cluster of storms in central KS
continue to backbuild making very little eastward progress but
as the activity begins to weaken it may drift into our central
KS counties possibly impacting KRSL, KGBD and perhaps KHUT
before dissipating by mid-morning. Otherwise, breezy southerly
winds are expected to develop across the area today with some
gusts exceeding 25 knots at times. Storms may redevelop across
western Kansas drifting eastward this evening and tonight,
mainly after 03-04Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM