Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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059 FXUS63 KICT 242309 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 609 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers this afternoon and evening across southeast Kansas, but dry for most. - Slightly warmer temperatures through the weekend. - Rain chances return to southeast Kansas by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates an upper jet nosing south across the Plains that has helped to touch off a few showers making their way across portions of central and eastern Kansas. At the surface, a relatively weak cold front stretches from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Mississippi River Valley and continues to push to the southeast. Slightly warmer daytime temperatures (middle 70s to lower 80s) are expected through the weekend despite today`s cold front thanks to westerly downslope flow. The global deterministic suite remains in agreement that the upper trough currently tracking over the Plains will become a cutoff semi-stationary low somewhere over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The location of this stallout will play a factor into what happens later on this week. A placement further east (e.g. over Tennessee) would support a warmer and drier pattern for the forecast area, while placement further west (e.g. over the Ozark Plateau) would support cooler and wetter conditions for the region. Though uncertainty for both scenarios remains high, the consensus is that the best chances for meaningful rain through the weekend will lie in southeast Kansas, especially if the oncoming tropical system manages to supply additional moisture to this already-potent system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A few showers/storms will continue to move southward across eastern Kansas. This activity is expected to diminish around sunset but a few showers could move across CNU site later this evening. Otherwise surface high pressure will build over the area and give way to VFR conditions with light north winds. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ