756
FXUS63 KICT 022335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon, especially north of
  Highway 50

- Additional storm chances tonight into Monday

- More rain chances through midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As of 3 PM Sunday afternoon, WAA near 700mb continues to generate
isolated to scattered showers/storms mainly north of Highway 50.
These showers/storms will continue decreasing in coverage and
intensity with eastward extent as the WAA diminishes.

Further west, a very similar setup to Saturday evening/this morning
is emerging with convection developing across the higher terrain.
This convection is likely to gradually progress eastward into
western KS. The best low-level theta-e will once again reside across
western OK, which should steer any MCS mainly southwest of the
forecast area. Short term radar trends will need to be monitored
overnight. More storm development is possible towards dawn
Monday if today`s convection weakens overnight, allowing the
LLJ to overspread western OK. This would bring the nose of the
jet near the stateline. Like today, prolonged weak WAA near
700mb could support showers/storms through the day Monday. All
of that to say, confidence remains quite low for widespread
convection at any given location in our forecast area.

The active pattern will continue through at least midweek with weak
perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to
moderately unstable environment. Confidence continues to increase
for the active pattern continuing with the main midlevel ridge axis
remaining west of the Plains. This result would keep shower/storm
chances going and temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF period. There
is a lot of uncertainty as far as thunderstorms for the this TAF
period. At the moment, 11Z to 15Z appears to be the best time
for thunderstorm activity. All terminals are likely to see this
possibility with the KCNU the least likely. Confidence is rather
low at this time so used PROB30 to cover this contingency.
Conditions favor strong to severe thunderstorms if it does
develop. This activity is expected to end after 16Z tomorrow.
After that time, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...ELM