Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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297 FXUS63 KICT 220821 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through tonight. - Below average temperatures for the upcoming week. - Potential for increasing rain chances late week and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 PRECIPITATION... TODAY--EARLY MONDAY...An approaching potent shortwave trough in concert with a strong/deep frontal zone will support continued widespread areas of rain/storms across the region through about midday. While instability is lacking, strong forcing amidst high precipitable waters will support areas of heavy rainfall, and possibly localized minor flooding of typical flood-prone areas. Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated lift decreases. The available forcing and associated hit-or-miss precipitation chances will gradually focus across mainly southeast Kansas by late this afternoon through tonight and early Monday. TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...Shortwave energy diving south-southeast across Mid-America may support hit-or-miss mainly light precipitation. Thinking rainfall amounts will remain light given marginal precipitable waters. LATE WEEK--NEXT WEEKEND...The ECMWF and Canadian deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support the potential for increasing meaningful precipitation over mainly eastern Kansas, as a stalled mid-level trough over the region interacts with dissipating tropical energy/moisture approaching from the southeast. The deterministic GFS and ensemble mean still is not supporting this scenario, and the Canadian solution has backed off some, so for now will only carry 20- 30 PoPs until model agreement increases. TEMPERATURES... TODAY--NEXT WEEK...Cooler Canadian air oozing south combined with precipitation and mostly cloudy skies will support well below average temperatures today, ranging from the 50s-60s to near 80 degrees, warmest over far southeast Kansas. Below average temperatures will prevail through the week, with forecast highs mostly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Several impacts to aviation interests are expected over the next 24 hours. A slug of widespread showers and storms is currently working across the eastern half of Kansas early this morning with pockets of heavy rainfall bringing visibility down to a mile at times. Despite this activity moving eastward early this morning, additional thunderstorm development is occurring across portions of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles which will likely enter the region later morning into the early afternoon hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will slowly come to an end from northwest to southeast. Conditions should begin to improve around KRSL, KGBD, and KSLN by around 21Z this afternoon, and improving conditions in and around KCNU may not occur until after 06Z late tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front is pushing southeastward across the region, and is already along a KGBD-KSLN line as of 06Z early this morning. Winds are generally light and variable south of the front, but should become more uniform out of the north after frontal passage with sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots possible at times. Also, much lower ceilings are expected across the area, especially across areas experiencing showers and storms. Cigs could drop to IFR levels at times, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike during the morning and early afternoon hours today. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell today. The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast calling for upper 50s or low 60s. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC CLIMATE...ADK