476
FXUS63 KICT 280544
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances across the region from
  late tonight through at least early next week, with the
  highest chances Thursday-Friday.

- While isolated occurrences of severe weather are possible,
  the potential for widespread organized severe weather appears
  low.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next several days,
  although Thursday and Friday look seasonably cool. Seasonably
  warm temperatures possible by late weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

As the previous forecaster noted, the next 7 days will feature a
more summer-like pattern thunderstorm-wise, with weaker forcing and
flow aloft, amidst increasing moisture/instability. Consequently,
predictability will be relatively low on exactly where/when the
highest thunderstorm chances will form, as convectively-induced
disturbances and boundaries will be the primary drivers.

LATER TONIGHT--TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture
transport should support scattered showers/thunderstorms across
central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Model soundings
indicate activity could be rooted fairly high (~700mb) so available
instability should generally be less than 500-800 J/kg. Still,
effective deep layer shear around 40 kts may support dime size hail
with the strongest activity.

TUESDAY EVENING--WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Thinking thunderstorm chances
will be concentrated primarily west-southwest of the region over the
High Plains Tuesday evening-night, as shortwave energy approaches
from the west amidst moderate instability. Held onto 20-30 PoPs over
central and south-central Kansas to account for activity getting
further east, although we are not expecting severe weather this far
east given weak instability. Shortwave energy and/or a convectively
induced disturbance over the region could support additional hit-or-
miss thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Wednesday-
Wednesday evening.

THURSDAY--FRIDAY...Thinking thunderstorm chances have a greater
potential of being more concentrated/widespread, as an upper trough
and an associated surface trough traverse the region, amidst
increasing moisture/instability. While mid-upper flow and associated
deep layer shear are only modest at best, moderate to perhaps strong
instability should support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm
threat, along with pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

SATURDAY--TUESDAY...Additional subtle ripples in the zonal upper
flow amidst continued rich moisture and strong instability should
support continued hit-or-miss thunderstorm chances over the weekend.
The latest deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF indicate potent
shortwave energy and an associated frontal zone traversing Mid-
America Monday-Tuesday, which could spark additional thunderstorm
chances. However, this is still a long ways out, with high
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Main aviation concern will be a few storms mainly this morning.

Mid level moisture transport is expected to ramp in toward 12z
across southwest and south central KS which will result in a few
storms developing toward 12z. For now, will only mention VCTS at
KICT and KHUT in the 12z-18z time frame. Bases on any storms
will generally be around 10,000ft or higher due to the elevated
nature of showers and storms. Any site that does not experience
a storm can expect VFR conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL