442
FXUS61 KILN 250828
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
428 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal system will initiate scattered showers and
storms today into Thursday. Tropical remnants will then bring
rain to close the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper level low centered near St. Louis will continue to sink
south and cutoff from the main flow over the lower Mississippi
River Valley today. Low level moisture over the Ohio Valley will
keep considerable clouds across the region, with only slow
decay of morning stratus heading into the afternoon. A stalled
frontal boundary near the Ohio River will continue to provide
isolated to scattered showers and storms. The humid atmosphere
and clouds will keep high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Complex mid and upper pattern continues tonight into Thursday as
the cut-off low wobbles near the mouth of the Ohio River.
Tropical moisture will flow north ahead of this low from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the central Appalachians and
eventually southern and eastern Ohio. Will continue scattered
showers and storms across the south, especially during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in decent agreement with the remnants of Helene forecast
to track northward into the Tennessee Valley through the day on
Friday before getting wrapped into a deeper upper level low
situated over the central/lower Mississippi Valley. There is
then a little more uncertainty beyond that, but the trend is
toward the upper low then slowly weakening as it drifts east across
the Tennessee Valley through the weekend and across the central
Appalachians into early next week.

The pcpn shield associated with Helene will lift into our area from
the south later Thursday night and into the day on Friday.
Will have categorical pops across our southern areas, tapering
back to chance across our north, with the heaviest QPF generally
remaining along and south of the Ohio River. With a little more
uncertainty then arising with the track of the weakening low, will
mainly just linger some lower end pops through much of the remainder
of the long term period.

High temperatures will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s through the
period with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No doubt a difficult forecast for the first 6 hours of the TAF
period, with patchy river valley fog along with developing low
stratus. Rain during the day has provided cool, humid low levels
that will likely produce IFR stratus through the night. Timing
out the formation of the stratus leaves plenty of uncertainty.
Have stayed with previous TAF`s timing as a starting point and
will adjust as the trends allow.

IFR/MVFR ceilings will slowly improve lift this morning leading
to a mostly cloudy day. Can`t rule out a few showers this
afternoon at the southern terminals near Cincinnati due to a
stalled frontal system.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night. Wind gusts
between 30 to 35 mph possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...