714
FXUS61 KILN 011743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into
Sunday. Rain showers will embedded thunderstorms will accompany
this system. High pressure will briefly return later Sunday
into Monday offering dry weather. An unsettled pattern is
expected from Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cirrus streaming across the area is mainly thin, so there is a
fair bit of sun this morning. Thicker clouds will spread in just
ahead of the precipitation that will start spreading in mid to
later afternoon, which will be mostly showers, not that a bit
of embedded thunder could not occur. Forecast highs looking
reasonable at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and weak surface low to track thru the
region overnight into Sunday. Axis of rain showers to pivot thru
the area overnight. Instability is marginal so thunder threat is
limited and mainly across the south. Rainfall is expected to be
between a quarter and a half inch.

Mild temperatures with forecast lows in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.

Showers will be ongoing early Sunday as weakening shortwave
continues to push off to the east. Main area of precipitation
will diminish from west to east but can not rule out re-
development of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with lingering
boundary in the afternoon. High temperatures to range from the
lower 70s to the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridge will strengthen slightly through Monday and then be
undercut by shortwave energy entering from the west. Rain, possibly
thunderstorms will begin Tuesday and become more prolific later in
the day as the ridge breaks down and more s/w energy crosses the
CWA. Showers and thunderstorms continue to remain a possibility
overnight with an uptick expected to occur before daybreak Wednesday
as another s/w passes east over the CWA.

Models show large differences in the pattern evolution beyond this
time, but do concur on afternoon storms decreasing/ending overnight
from w-e. Expect that they will end before midnight for an
essentially dry overnight, however NBM was much more bullish on this
decrease and persisted activity, ramping it back up during the day
Thursday as a cutoff upper low settles over the northern Great Lakes
region. Activity is being shown to cut off overnight, likely due to
dry air wrapping around the low. Another ramp up in pops on Friday
with the low tracking closer towards northern Ohio and cold pool
overturning expected. The proximity of the low keeps at least chance
pops in through the remainder of the forecast.

Temps Sun night/Mon will be above normal with lows near 60 and highs
in the lower 80s, increasing to be 5-8 degrees above climo overnight
Mon and Tuesday with lows near 65 and highs from the low 80s in the
west to upper 80s in the east. This rising trend in temps only
lingers through Tuesday night when lows are solidly 10 deg above
normal in the upper 60s. Cloud cover and expected precip knock down
temperatures from Wednesday onward, ending with Friday highs in the
mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will continue through the early part of the TAF period.
Showers will spread into the region after 23Z but gradually
become less organized as they spread northeast overnight.
Conditions will initially stay VFR as showers begin, but lower
levels will moisten resulting in ceilings falling below 2kft as
well as with some MVFR visibilities. While precipitation will
diminish overnight, persistent low level moisture will likely
result in ceilings falling to IFR towards or even a bit after
12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling will occur Sunday afternoon and could
possibly linger into Sunday night and Monday morning.
Thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...