Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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532 FXUS63 KILX 250102 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 802 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers will continue early this evening, mainly across southeast Illinois and southern parts of central Illinois, then dissipate after sunset. Rainfall amounts will be less than one quarter of an inch. - A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected late this work week into early next week, with rainfall starting Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and continuing through the weekend and into the first part of next week. The heaviest rainfall is expected from Friday night through Sunday when hurricane remnants arrive in the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Except for a few lingering showers near the lower Illinois River valley and south of I-70, precip has ended across central Illinois and anticipate the remainder of the night to be dry. An upper low is currently digging across Missouri with DCVA occurring across portions of central and southern Illinois, but stabilization of the boundary layer and the better forcing gradually shifting south will keep the remainder of central Illinois dry overnight. Temps are on track to fall into the 50s. Fog will be the main concern late tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest suite of CAMs show some fog potential area-wide but have the densest fog along and north of I-74. Deubelbeiss && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Isolated showers will continue to move across southern parts of the CWA and southeast IL through the evening hours, however should dissipate as the sun sets and as the upper level system moves south across MO. The sfc low that moved across the CWA should also continue to move northeast into the Great Lakes area, across MI, pulling the rest of the pcpn with it. Some clearing of the clouds is also expected overnight and with the lighter winds, light fog is expected to develop across the western half of the CWA. Restrictions should be limited to around 3 miles or better. Late this evening through tomorrow morning should be dry, but with the mid level trough still near the eastern and southeastern parts of the CWA, additional showers are possible (20% chance) from late morning tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon. Any showers will dissipate tomorrow evening as the sun sets...like this evening. Temps tonight through tomorrow night will be around or slightly below normal for this time of year. Auten .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The long term focus will be on the hurricane as it moves onshore along the FL Gulf Coast starting Thursday and how it interacts with the upper level cut-off system sitting over the lower to middle Mississippi valley. Models have some differences on timing and location of precip advecting into the southeast parts of the CWA later this week, with some showing precip arriving as early as Thursday morning to afternoon. Other models show precip arriving late Thursday night and slowly increasing to the north through the end of the week and into the weekend. How the upper level system and the hurricane remnants blend together is another story, and again the models differ some on that. However, no matter the outcome of the blending/interaction, an extended period of unsettled weather will be expected from late this week, through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The slow moving upper level system seems to be the biggest influence on keeping precip chances around while the hurricane remnants appear to get caught up in the upper level system as it slowly moves east- northeast. Another mid level trough is forecast to drop into the great lakes region Tuesday, which could keep a small chance of precip (20% chance) in the area. Temps are expected to remain slightly below normal or near normal through the extended period. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Low pressure is exiting the region leaving low level cyclonic flow in place across central Illinois that is resulting in some lingering MVFR ceilings and a few spotty sprinkles. Conditions should continue to improve over the next couple hours with VFR conditions primarily expected outside of some fog potential overnight and Wednesday. The threat for fog is greatest from PIA to BMI and will reduce vsby to 1-4SM early Wednesday morning. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$