326
FXUS63 KILX 261950
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds will increase over areas southeast of the IL river this
  evening and will remain dry across central IL. There is a 20-40%
  chance of light rain showers in southeast IL this evening. More
  widespread moderate rain showers will spread into southeast IL
  during overnight and Friday while a chance of lighter rain
  showers will get as far northwest as I-55 by Friday afternoon. A
  good chance of rain showers will occur over central IL this
  weekend, with likely chances of rain over southeast IL Friday
  night and Saturday where rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
  likely, with a 50-70% chance of greater than 2 inch rains from
  highway 50 south. The IL river valley to the northwest may only
  see a tenth inch or less of rainfall.

- Strong northeast winds are expected to develop on Friday and
  continue Friday night as the remnants of Hurricane Helene move
  into the lower Ohio river valley. There is a 50-70% chance of
  wind gusts of 45 mph or higher from Friday afternoon into early
  Friday evening east of a Bloomington to Shelbyville line, with a
  70-90% chance of wind gusts over 45 mph east of I-57.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Quite weather is still expected this evening over most of the CWA,
but clouds and associated precip will begin to advect into
southeast IL this evening and then spread north to parts of
central IL overnight. Most of the precip looks to remain east of
I-55 through the period with the highest chances and rainfall
amounts being south I-70, where totals will reach 1.5 to close to
3 inches possible. Though heavy rainfall is a threat in the
southeast, a bigger concern will be higher winds that will move
into the eastern and southeastern part of the CWA tomorrow
afternoon and continue into tomorrow evening. Sustained wind
speeds by tomorrow afternoon will reach 25 to 30 mph with possible
gusts over 45 mph. The main area of concern will be along and
east of a Bloomington to Shelbyville line starting tomorrow
afternoon and continuing into tomorrow evening. A wind advisory
has been issued for this already.

Temps will be around normal this evening, but tomorrow afternoon
highs will be tempered in areas when considerable cloud cover and
rain will be located at.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Though the bulk of the rain and winds from the hurricane remnants
will be over by Saturday morning, lingering precip will continue
through Sunday. Rainfall amounts will be quite low over the area
and the highest pops will be in the southeast Saturday morning and
afternoon. As the upper level low and the sfc low related to the
hurricane move off to the east at the end of the weekend and the
beginning of next week, a few lingering showers could still be
present in eastern IL. Beyond Monday, dry weather is expected for
Tue through Thur.

Temps will be on the warm side for the weekend, except where
precip is occurring, and then cool down to around normal for the
new work week.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon into
this evening, with mostly clear skies and lighter winds. Precip
will begin to advect into the area southeast of the TAF sites late
tonight and then spread toward DEC and CMI around 12z. Will start
with VCSH at DEC and CMI but then bring predominate precip at
those two sites at 15z. Precip will start to get close to SPI
around 15z, but become more predominate at end of TAF period. PIA
and CMI will remain VFR through the period with just mid and high
clouds expected. Precip reaching PIA and BMI is very uncertain at
this time. Winds will be northeast around 10kts through the day
and evening, but then increase overnight and become very gusty
tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ038-
043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$