102
FXUS63 KIND 292216
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain ending this evening, quiet and dry through Friday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday into Sunday.

- Warming trend early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Rest of Today/Tonight.

Light rain showers continue across the eastern counties as northerly
flow continues on the backend of the low pressure system that
brought multiple rounds of showers and storms to central Indiana
over the last few days. As of early this afternoon, showers had
ended for points west of Indianapolis with highest coverage from
Muncie to Rushville and points to the east.  Clouds have gradually
begin to clear to the west as dry air continues to slowly make its
way into central Indiana and the forcing associated with the low
pushes further to the east.

Expectations are that by the early overnight hours that skies will
be mostly clear. Afterwards, quiet conditions are expected through
the night with efficient radiational cooling and dry surface air
allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to around 50.

Thursday.

A very pleasant day is expected for Thursday with mostly clear
skies, temperatures in the low 70s, and dewpoints in the mid 40s.
Surface flow will gradually become more easterly by mid morning as
high pressure begins to move into the Great Lakes region.  RH values
will drop to between 30 and 40 percent but with near calm winds the
fire weather risk will be near zero, especially with recent rains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Synoptic flow through the remainder of the week will be
characterized by troughing over the eastern US with a ridge
translating eastward with time. This ridge looks to arrive towards
the end of the week. Thereafter, guidance tends to show a more zonal
to quasi-zonal pattern taking shape. This looks to persist into next
week with occasional shortwave/vort maxes providing periodic rain
chances. By mid to late next week, ensemble guidance shows a strong
signal for ridge-building over the western US with troughing over
the east coast.

In terms of sensible weather through the long range, generally quiet
conditions look to persist as we head into the weekend. An expansive
area of surface high pressure will be overhead tonight through
Friday, at least. Strong subsidence and a dry column will bring
clear/mainly clear skies through Thursday. Temps should remain near
to below normal with a large diurnal spread. Cirrus debris from
upstream convection should far enough away to not be noticeable.
Though some more pessimistic members of guidance bring this in late
Thursday/early Friday. Regardless, this cirrus will likely be thin
for the most part.

Cloud cover likely increases by late Friday and into the weekend as
the primary ridge axis shifts eastward. Additionally, the surface
high also shifts eastward allowing low-level flow to become more
southerly/southwesterly. Such a configuration will lead to a good
period of warm air and moisture advection over the weekend. A return
to more humid conditions appears likely. But does that translate
into shower/thunderstorm chanceS? As of right now it does appear so,
mainly because of a shortwave progged to arrive on Saturday.
Guidance seems to be in good agreement with this feature. Will carry
chance PoPs over a broad time range to account for the model
agreement with this feature but also some uncertainty with timing.

After the weekend guidance returns us to zonal or quasi-zonal flow
with embedded shortwaves. Model agreement tends to diminish
regarding these smaller-scale features and so our confidence in the
forecast likewise decreases. Still, some useful information can be
said about the forecast this far out. Namely, zonal flow aloft with
southerly (or at least a southerly component) flow at the surface
will likely lead to a warming trend. Temperatures have recently been
nearer to the late May average (mid to high 70s), and guidance shows
a rise into the low 80s early next week. Additionally, a trend
towards troughing late next week (beyond the end of the Long Range
period) should bring about a cooling trend in the day 8-14 range.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Impacts:

- VFR conditions throughout the forecast period

Discussion:

The broad upper trough across the northeast U S will pull away from
the region tonight with skies gradually clearing across central
Indiana. Any lingering gusts past 00Z this evening will diminish
quickly with light northerly flow overnight. High pressure across
the region for Thursday will bring dry weather and minimal clouds.
Light N/NE winds are expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Ryan