492
FXUS63 KIWX 261725
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
125 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today with variable cloudiness and high temperatures in
  the mid-70s.

- Rain arrives from south to north starting Friday morning.
  Northeast wind gusts up to 35 mph by the afternoon.

- Scattered showers linger through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Expansive high pressure is centered over Iowa early this morning.
Mainly clear skies locally, aside from northeast Ohio where abundant
clouds lie along a stationary front that drops south to the Gulf.
High pressure and early-morning radar trends favor dry weather today
but lingering clouds, especially over northwest Ohio and south of US
24 into Indiana are anticipated. Clouds will be associated with a
Tennessee Valley low, which will eventually lift poleward with
Hurricane Helene. With clouds in play, the high temperature forecast
proves somewhat tricky but should be comparable to Wednesday amid
rather neutral temperature advection.

Rain from the dual-lows gradually slips into the forecast from south
to north on Friday. Expect a mainly dry day in Michiana, but rain
should reach the OH-MI line late Friday afternoon. Rain is most wide
spread Friday night and early Saturday morning. Thereafter,
scattered showers will come and go through the weekend. Northeast
wind gusts will be on the rise Friday with gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
(10% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph, according to the
National Blend.) There is some concern by neighboring offices that
as Helene deepens today, there could be a need for increased wind
gusts on Friday. This will be monitored over the next 24 hours.

By Monday, an expansive ridge over the western two-thirds of the
CONUS expands its reach to include the Great Lakes. Thus, a
seasonably warm, and perhaps a dry day. The National Blend flipped
back to a wet forecast Monday with a few slower model runs showing
their hand. A cold front looms Tuesday, but because of a ridge over
the Four Corners and a displaced tropical jet, moisture return into
this front is poor which limits the overall rain chance. There is
disagreement with the magnitude and pace of this front, but  falling
temperatures through the day, especially near the lake, are
plausible Tuesday. Otherwise, cooler area-wide Wednesday with highs
struggling to reach 70. Temperatures quickly rebound Thursday and
Friday with renewed ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

An upper low to our south will usher the energy of tropical cyclone
Helene up to the area fairly quickly between today and Friday. As
its ingredients move up here, expect an increase in cloud cover, but
expect it to stay above VFR through this taf period. The area of
rain may approach FWA early tomorrow morning, but the expectation is
that it remains a county or two south of it until the afternoon,
which is just after this taf period. Winds will be the bigger hazard
as they will be able to gust to above 20 kts at both sites as early
as around 12z Friday. FWA may be able to see 35-40 kts gusts during
the afternoon and evening period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for INZ013-015-020-
     022>027-032>034.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller