Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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770 FXUS63 KIWX 301935 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 335 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably warm conditions to dominate through Friday night. - A period of showers and isolated storms is expected Saturday afternoon and evening, with severe weather not expected. - Summer-like temperatures and humidity will bring increasing chances of showers and storms for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 No weather concerns for the next 36 to 48 hours as high pressure dominates, with plenty of sunshine and slowly moderating temperatures. A weak southern stream disturbance is still expected to move from the SW US into the Ohio Valley Saturday, bringing an increase in low level moisture (PWATs pushing 1.5") and lift. Scattered to possibly numerous showers and a few storms still appear on track, with a Sat AM arrival depicted by a few of the hi res models, but greater consensus fro the afternoon and evening hours. Poor shear profiles, MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG and paltry lapse rates all point towards no severe threat, but locally heavy rain would be possible. Slightly drier air arrives for Sunday into early Monday, before a deepening northern stream trough begins to take shape bringing a more unsettled pattern through at least mid week. Another disturbance arrives late Mon into Monday night with chances for a few showers/storms with it. This feature will bring low to mid 60 dewpoints to the area, setting the stage for much better chances for showers and storms by the middle of next week as the northern stream trough deepens with the closed upper low reaching the western Great Lakes by 00Z Thu. Some differences in timing and also extent of digging with the trough and subsequent position of the upper low. Suffice to say, looks like a wet mid week with temperatures eventually trending back below normal in the wake of the system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 102 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 A broad low level anticyclone will continue to be the dominant feature across the region into Friday. Embedded in this larger scale anticyclone is a weak inverted low level trough that has been the focus of IFR/LIFR cigs just west of KFWA this morning into this afternoon. Diurnal mixing has gradually improved these cigs to above 2k feet, and remaining primarily west of KFWA. Would expect any MVFR conditions to be short-lived at KFWA through 19Z or 20Z. Otherwise, light northeast winds may back to the north at KSBN later this afternoon as a weak lake breeze forms. Light winds tonight become light southerly Friday afternoon between 5 and 10 knots. After diurnal low level clouds diminish this evening, some low coverage high clouds are expected on Friday with VFR conditions expected. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Marsili