Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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635 FXUS64 KJAN 271130 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 630 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Today and tonight: Hurricane Helene made landfall last evening over the Florida Big Bend and is now spinning east central Georgia. With a slightly more east track than forecast last night, rainfall has not moved back into our north as anticipated and will likely take until mid morning to do so. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis also showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over north Mississippi. This low has been wrapping around dry air aloft over our CWA but shows signs of finally bringing some moisture associated with Helene into northwest Mississippi. The closed low is progged to shift east northeast today over northern Alabama and merge with the remnants of Helene tonight over the Tennessee valley. As it does so, the deep moisture from Helene will be drawn across the northern half of our CWA with PWATs increasing back above an inch and a half north of Interstate 20. This will lead to an increase in rain chances down to Interstate 20 this afternoon that will be followed by decreasing rain chances from the south this evening. Dry weather is expected again over our CWA by midnight. The pressure gradient of 9mb this morning is expected to breezy conditions across our CWA. This highest wind gusts perhaps of 30- 35mph will be over the northeast portions of our CWA. This pressure gradient will become weaker during the afternoon as Helene moves up into Tennessee. The breezy northwest wind, rain chances and associated cloud cover will likely hold temperatures in the 70s over the northeast third of the CWA with cooler than normal highs in the 80s to the southwest. With diminishing wind and decreasing cloud cover tonight, temperatures will be able to cool back down below seasonal normals by morning. /22/ Wet weather will gradually come to an end as a closed-low/Helene remnant becomes embedded in the main flow and migrates towards the northwest over the weekend into Monday. Upper-lvl ridging is expected to build in over the Four Corners region to start the week. Dry air and seasonal high/low temperatures will remain over the area. By Wednesday, a frontal boundary is expected to move towards the region. Models haven`t determined if precipitation is accompanying the boundary; however, additional dry air is expected to settle post frontal passage. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period cntrl and south. MVFR cigs were already being observed at GTR but wl take until 14Z to develop at GLH-GWO. An area of -SHRA wl also drop over the northern TAF sites after 14Z. A gusty nw wind 20-22kts wl develop across the area after 14Z and continue through the aftn before subsiding by 23Z. MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue in the north this evening and may improve to VFR prior to the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 82 64 84 63 / 20 20 0 0 Meridian 80 63 83 62 / 20 10 0 0 Vicksburg 83 64 85 63 / 10 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 85 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 83 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 77 62 80 62 / 60 50 0 0 Greenwood 74 62 79 62 / 60 50 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22