Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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136 FXUS64 KJAN 240843 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Through tonight: A cold front is currently making rather slow progress into the region and will continue to do so through tonight. Ahead of this front, scattered showers have been moving across northeast LA and the ArkLaMiss Delta early this morning. This activity is expected to lose steam as daybreak approaches. However, with diurnal heating, redevelopment of showers is expected ahead of the front this afternoon. Marginally supportive bulk shear and sufficient instability will exist for isolated storms to develop. However, relatively weak forcing, marginal mid level lapse rates, and largely boundary-parallel flow should help temper intensity. Tonight, a more vigorous upper disturbance is on track to move across the area as it rounds a cutoff upper low pivoting into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Increased forcing associated with this feature should yield greater coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, even as we head into the overnight. While rainfall amounts will average below a half inch in most areas, locally higher amounts will be possible with HREF LPMM suggesting max localized totals in the 2-4" range. Given current ground conditions with these amounts, flooding is not a concern at this time. Cooler and somewhat drier air will begin to move in from the north tonight behind the front, with airmass change becoming more noticeable in the following days. /DL/ Wednesday through Monday: Extended forecast remains on track as a stalled frontal boundary keeps wet conditions across the area and Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9) moves northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to both the stalled frontal boundary and increased cloud cover from the tropical system, slightly below to near average high/low temps are expected. A slow-moving closed low forms over the Ozarks/ArkLaTex region as a blocking pattern comes into place and a stalled frontal boundary is expected to remain situated over the CWA, continuing rain chances (25-60%) for the area. Turning to the tropics: a tropical disturbance (now PTC 9) is expected to migrate northwards toward the Gulf of Mexico. Models are in agreement in tracking and strengthening the system into a hurricane in the eastern Gulf, affecting FL panhandle near Thursday. Interaction between the closed-low and tropical cyclone is expected to bring abundant moisture to the region. IVT and PW values are expected to be near the 99th and maximum percentile, resulting in possible heavy rainfall across the area through Friday, especially in eastern and northern parts of the CWA. As the remnants of the tropical cyclone absorb into the main flow and the closed low moves out of the area, rain chances will begin to decrease for majority of the area this weekend. Continue to check back for updates as the event gets closer. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out closer to daybreak, mainly across south MS and central LA. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS with a VFR cloud deck. By the afternoon and continuing into Tuesday evening, showers and isolated storms will become more numerous across the area, with brief ceiling and visby reductions possible in heavier rain. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 68 83 64 / 40 60 50 30 Meridian 92 68 83 64 / 10 50 60 50 Vicksburg 91 68 83 62 / 40 50 30 20 Hattiesburg 94 70 88 68 / 10 20 50 40 Natchez 91 69 83 63 / 30 40 40 10 Greenville 87 64 79 60 / 20 10 30 10 Greenwood 90 65 81 61 / 40 30 30 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/SW/DL