Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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847 FXUS64 KJAN 260155 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 855 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Cooler temperatures are in store for the forecast region tonight with lows bottoming out in the low 60s F. Current observations and METSAT imagery depicts clear skies, and there is not expected to be any change to that throughout the night tonight. Consequently, we`re not looking for any showers tonight as the weak cold front that moved through early this morning through the afternoon has pushed through the area, bringing cooler, drier weather with a northerly fetch. That cold front is expected to become stationary through the Mississippi coast tonight and linger through that area for the foreseeable future, keeping most exciting weather chances at bay for the time being. Quick note about the tropics: Hurricane Helene is not expected to impact the forecast area in any major way. Landfall is projected to be somewhere along the Florida panhandle and continue through Georgia, where most impacts will be felt./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tonight through Friday: Tonight the weakening cold front will have progressed through a majority of the area ending the showery activity across our area. Longwave troughing will continue as the closed low begins to shift and reinforce itself in the lower Mississippi River Valley, orienting itself near the Mississippi/ Arkansas/Tennessee boarder. Behind the front drier cooler air will filter into the CWA dropping overnight temps into the low to mid 60s. A few select locations will even bottom out in the upper 50s in the northern portions of the CWA. By tomorrow the closed low will have bolstered itself into the MS/ARK/TN boarder region as the frontal boundary further progresses out of the area. This will serve as a kind of barrier, the frontal boundary will limit moisture in the area as the drier air remains entrenched. Additionally the orientation of the low will mitigate direct impacts of Helene for a majority of the CWA. As the remnants of Helene continue its track north, the associated tropical moisture will become drawn into the closed low across northern MS. The biggest impact will come in the form of the increased sky cover and scattered shower chances (30-60%) north of I-20 beginning Thursday evening through Friday. It is worth noting on Friday that if there aren`t any breaks in the high cloud cover expected and rain is continuous then max temps could struggle to reach what is forecast (low 70s-low 80s) and max temps will likely remain in the range of high 60s to lower 70s./KP/ Saturday through Wednesday...The governing weather pattern will still be controlled by the mid/upper low across the Lower MS and TN River Valleys. The cyclonic flow associated with this feature will continue to support lift to provide some clouds with the higher % coverage over the northern areas. Each day this will wane some and look for less clouds as we start the work week. By Monday, some shortwave ridging will edge into the area as the large scale pattern adjusts to the next main weather feature. At this time, the more favored pattern to evolve is for a W CONUS (Rockies) ridge to build and allow for E CONUS troughing. The result is for a solid cold front to push more southward in the Wed/Thu periods. This would bring cooler/drier air to the area if it plays out. Lots of time to watch trends over the coming days. In summary for the day 4- 7 periods...Sensible weather will be precip free and temps at seasonal values/ranges./CME/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period, however there is some chance for MVFR ceilings to impact KMEI, KPIB, and KHBG around 12Z Thursday before lifting back to VFR range. Winds will be out of the north, and gusts to 20 kts or so will be possible after 15Z Thursday at most sites. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 64 83 62 76 / 10 0 10 30 Meridian 63 83 61 76 / 10 0 20 30 Vicksburg 62 83 61 77 / 10 0 10 20 Hattiesburg 67 86 63 82 / 10 0 0 10 Natchez 64 82 60 79 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 60 81 61 71 / 0 0 20 50 Greenwood 61 83 61 71 / 0 0 30 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/CME/KP