Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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309 FXUS64 KJAN 250828 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 328 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a rather amplified trough extending south across the ArkLaTex region from a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi valley. Several subtle shortwaves were noted poised to round the base of the trough and across our CWA within the resulting southwest flow. One such shortwave was moving over our CWA and helping to redevelop convection along and south of a weak cold front that surface analysis had sagging into central MS. The 00Z Wed JAN sounding still showed a warm moist airmass in place with a PWAT of 1.87in. Hi-res models suggest the convection will continue to increase this morning until the shortwave shifts northeast of Mississippi later this morning. There will likely be a brief lull in the convection around noon before the next shortwave combines with daytime heating and the cold front to redevelop convection early this is afternoon. The cold front is expected to be south or just pushing south of our CWA by evening ending the rain chances. Dry weather is expected by midnight and cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA. This will lead to cooler than normal morning lows with a few locations bottoming out in the upper 50s in our north. /22/ Long Term (Thurs-Tues): Wet pattern continues for the ArkLaMiss region Thursday as a closed- low situates over the Ozarks and a washed out frontal boundary hangs around the area. In the southeast Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to become a hurricane/major hurricane before landfall. Direct impacts from Helene is not expected for the CWA, but will help transport tropical moisture into the region. Both low pressure systems are expected to provide sufficient moisture to the area to keep isolated/scattered showers in the forecast through Saturday. Areas east of I-55 and north of I-20 has the greatest potential (15-50%) to see rainfall. Post landfall, Helene will absorb into the main flow and the closed-low will gradually move towards the northeast Sunday. Drier conditions and seasonal temperatures will settle in once the closed-low migrates northward at the start of the new week. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Local radars had a few SHRA exiting east MS and a few SHRA across south MS at 0530Z. Additional development will remain possible but VFR conditions wl continue to prevail areawide until after 09Z. After 09Z MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop over the east and south MS TAF sites and prevail until after 16Z before improving to VFR. Isolated to scattered SHRA wl remain possible through 18Z as a weak cold front sags through the area. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 64 82 62 / 60 10 10 20 Meridian 82 63 81 62 / 70 20 30 30 Vicksburg 84 63 83 61 / 30 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 89 67 85 64 / 60 20 20 10 Natchez 84 63 81 61 / 40 10 0 0 Greenville 82 60 81 62 / 30 10 10 20 Greenwood 83 60 83 62 / 20 10 10 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22