846
FXUS64 KJAN 270225 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
925 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Overnight tonight and into the early morning hours we will start to
see rain chances begin to pick up across the northern reaches of the
CWA, along and north of Highway 82, starting around sunrise tomorrow
morning. These rain chances will continue to be reinforced and
progress southward by wrap around moisture making its way into the
region via Hurricane Helene`s western moisture channel being picked
up by a cut off low over western TN. It should be noted that there
will be no measurable impact for our foreacst area from Hurricane
Helene with the exception of some peripheral moisture advection.
Cooler temperatures are continued to be projected tonight and
tomorrow morning with lows bottoming out right around 60 F for the
entire region. Circling back on the rain chances, tomorrow morning:
tomorrow , the tropical moisture associated with Helene combined
with the closed low over the Mid-South will introduce mid-high rain
chances (between 25-70%) mainly for northern zones and progressing
to I-20 by the evening. Most rain showers should dissapate a couple
of hours after sunset tomorrow./OAJ/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Weather conditions will remain quiet heading as global guidance
continues to wrap drier air across our forecast area while drifting
south into northern Mississippi later tonight. While this low
continues to circulate over northern Mississippi, it will help bring
in some low end rain chances (around 20%) associated with Helene
south and into our northern zones. Cloud cover should begin to
gradually increase from the north heading into the overnight period
as the aforementioned closed low remains over the Mid-South. Expect
overnight lows to drop into the low 60s across the area. Heading
into Friday, the tropical moisture associated with Helene combined
with the closed low over the Mid-South will introduce mid-high rain
chances (between 25-70%) mainly for areas along and north of I-20 by
Friday afternoon. With the closed low beginning to tighten across
the southeast CONUS along with a 5 to 7 mb pressure gradient, areas
into our northern zones could see sustained winds of 20-25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. For this reason, we went ahead and introduced a
"Limited" threat for gradient winds for these areas. This is
supported decent HREF probabilities in excess of 50-70% of greater
than 35 mph.

Friday Night through Thursday:

The gradient wind threat will begin to diminish by Friday night as
the remnants of Hurricane Helene starts to slowly make its way east
across the Tennessee Valley. Heading into the weekend, the
aforementioned low along the leftover remnants of Helene, will start
to slowly track northeast towards the Northeast Atlantic. With the
low migrating towards the northeast, rain chances will begin to
gradually decrease across the north before coming to an end on
Sunday. Heading into Monday, an upper level ridge will begin to form
over the southwest. This will help bring quiet weather conditions
along with seasonal temperatures across the CWA through the mid-
week. Beyond the extended period, future global guidance is starting
to hint at a frontal boundary moving towards the southeast, bringing
drier/cooler air into the air. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions and northerly winds around 10 kts to start the TAF
period at all sites. Increasing chances for low stratus will
accompany increasing rain chances for northern Mississippi TAF
sites by 15Z to 18Z Friday. Wind gusts to around 20-25 kts will
also become more likely by 18Z Friday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  81  64  84 /   0  20  20   0
Meridian      61  80  62  83 /   0  10  10   0
Vicksburg     60  83  64  85 /   0  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   63  85  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       60  83  64  85 /   0  10   0   0
Greenville    62  77  62  81 /  10  60  40  10
Greenwood     60  75  62  79 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/CR/CR