Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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717 FXUS64 KJAN 231110 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today through tonight: While much attention is given to the tropical cyclone threat in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, surface high pressure and ridging aloft will continue to dictate our weather during the near term, bringing little in the way of weather impacts and temperatures several degrees above normal. A weak cold front will approach northwest portions of the area by later tonight, and the increased moisture convergence could support increased rain chances over far northwest portions of the area by daybreak. /EC/ Tuesday through Saturday: A wetter extended period is expected as a frontal boundary makes it way towards the area and a potential tropical system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards FL. Expect below-average temps (high in the upper 70s & lower 80s/lows in the 60s) throughout the extended period. An upper-level trough is expected to move in from the northwest, pushing a frontal boundary towards the ArkLaMiss region on Tuesday, and rain chances (15-60%) will gradually increase as the week progresses. This trough will help form a rex block over the central CONUS with energy likely forming a slow-moving closed low over the ArkLaTex/ Ozark region. Concerning tropical development: Model ensembles have come in agreement with the development of a tropical system that is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC has a 70% development chance over the next 48 hrs and a 90% chance over the next 7 days. A lot of uncertainty remains with track and timing of the tropical system, however; confidence is higher that the tropical system is expected to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interaction between the closed off low and tropical system may bring an abundance of moisture transport and some concern for heavy rainfall. As a result, greatest QPF amounts and perhaps some heavy rainfall will be possible in eastern and northern MS. This event is several days away and changes to the forecast are expected; check back for updates as the days progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Aside from a few patchy areas of BR/FG early this morning, VFR conditions and light south-southwest surface wind will prevail through the forecast period. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 30 50 Meridian 94 70 92 68 / 0 0 10 40 Vicksburg 92 71 89 67 / 0 0 30 40 Hattiesburg 95 71 93 70 / 0 0 10 20 Natchez 92 70 90 68 / 0 0 30 30 Greenville 91 71 86 65 / 0 20 50 30 Greenwood 93 72 89 65 / 0 0 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/SW/EC