Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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571 FXUS62 KJAX 211130 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 730 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight) Patchy light fog has started to develop inland and will likely build into a few areas of fog from the Suwannee Valley northward into inland SE GA over the next few hours. Locally dense, transient fog may develop in those areas as well, with visibility dropping to 1/2 mile or less. High pressure wedging in from the north will compress gradients, bringing a "mini" surge of northeasterly winds today. A subtle, inverted trough offshore has enhanced shower activity mainly across the adjacent Atlantic waters. The northeasterly low level flow will push waves of low-topped showers into the coastal areas from St Augustine south through the day. Due to the dry air aloft, thunderstorm development is unlikely. However, a few showers rolling onshore may offer breezy gusts up to 35 mph. Outside of any showers winds will be breezy along the coast, gusting up to 25 mph. Breeziness will begin to relax this evening as the gradients begin to decompress with a gradual weakening of the surface ridge. Temperature trends today will follow very close to yesterday with highs pushing into the mid/upper 80s except at the coast where low/mid 80s are expected. Tonight, relaxing winds and clear skies will set up the potential for another night of patchy fog development. Lows will be warmest at the coast (mid 70s) due to the lingering onshore winds. Inland areas will fall to the upper 60s and low 70s again. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night) Dry and quiet conditions will continue during the later half of the weekend and into the upcoming work week as high pressure and dry air (PWATs <=1.5") sits over the region. Northeasterly flow will begin to weaken through the day on Sunday and shift to become easterly by Monday. With the shift of the winds, the coastal advisory will stay in effect through the afternoon on Sunday. The onshore flow may bring some showers on Sunday afternoon for coastal locations south of St. Augustine and towards the inland locations in north central FL. Otherwise, patchy to areas of fog is expected for far inland locations as clear skies and weak overnight winds during the overnight hours heading into Sunday. Temperature highs for this weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, with highs in the lower 90s for inland locations. Overnight lows expected to be in the upper 60s for locations across SE GA and in the lower 70s across NE FL. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) The dry weather will continue through the first half of the upcoming work week, as dry air (PWATs <1.2") and high pressure will remain over the region. An easterly- southeasterly flow will allow for breezy winds along the coast. By midweek, some moisture is expected to begin to return to the area, coming from the south- southeast. The question still remains for the potential development (60% chance of formation over the next 7 days from the NHC) of a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico and where the system would track. Use this weekend to restock supply kits and review family evacuation plans. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 MVFR VSBYS in fog will continue at GNV/VQQ until the 13-14Z time frame, otherwise mainly VFR conds in increasing NE Flow the rest of the morning hours with SCT Cu developing in the 2000-3000 ft range, which could briefly become BKN MVFR CIGS in the 13-16Z time frame, but chances remain too low or brief to include at this time. NE winds will increase to 12-14 knots for the coastal TAF sites today and 10-11 knots for inland TAF sites with some peak gusts around 20 knots at times. The NE flow will bring showers in the vicinity of the SGJ TAF site, but chances remain too low to include TEMPO groups at this time, but will continue to monitor. Later in the TAF period expect NE winds to diminish after sunset and another round of MVFR fog will be possible starting at VQQ by 06Z and at GNV by 09Z. && .MARINE... High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical disturbance next week. RIP CURRENTS...A "mini" surge of northeasterly flow will elevate surf and increase rip current risk to High this afternoon at all beaches. Winds will ease up tonight but continue onshore resulting in a Moderate Risk on Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the St Johns River basin (including the Intracoastal Waterway) and Atlantic coast of NE FL through at least the next three high tide cycles. Localized areas of low-end Moderate tidal flooding will be possible with this early afternoon`s high tide within the St Johns River between the Buckman Bridge and Mayport, including the Trout River. Lowering astronomical tidal departures and weakening onshore flow will lower tidal levels early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 83 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 86 69 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 85 74 86 74 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 89 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 90 70 92 72 / 10 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124- 125-132-133-137-138-225-325. High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$