060
FXUS62 KJAX 030740
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
340 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Quiet conditions are set to continue through the rest of the
morning hours with mostly clear skies. Ridge axis extending from
an elongated area of high pressure centered over Bermuda will
continue the onshore flow and progressive Atlantic sea breeze once
again today. Enough moisture seeping eastward will combine with
convergence along the sea breeze to initiate showers as it quickly
moves inland early this afternoon. Widely scattered t`storms are
more likely to develop late this afternoon and early eventing near
the I-75 corridor and locations to the west where the Gulf and
Atlantic sea breeze interaction will occur. Significant storms are
not expected as most activity will be garden-variety in nature.
Convection will diminish quickly with the loss of heating and
instability this evening with mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will push back into the 90s at inland locations
while the coast benefits from the early afternoon sea breeze push,
keeping highs in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will track similar to
this morning with readings in the upper 60s inland and low 70s at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Surface high pressure ridging covers the area Tuesday through
Wednesday night creating a bit of a stagnant flow. Any
precipitation will likely occur in the afternoon due to diurnal
heating and the sea breeze. Chances for afternoon showers and
storms Tuesday will be 30-50% area wide with daytime temperatures
in the low 90s, staying slightly cooler along the coast. Overnight
temperatures will cool into the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday,
chances for afternoon showers and storms will be 50-60% with
daytime temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

Temperatures continue to increase as the week progresses,
reaching into the upper 90s for some areas of NE FL by Thursday
and sticking around into the beginning of next week. Increasing
temperatures and moisture in the area will bring chances for
precipitation and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon with the
best chance occurring Thursday afternoon of 60 percent. A cold
front looks to make its way through towards the end of the week,
though timing and impacts are still uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions persist with light winds until the easterly sea
breeze develops and pushes inland this afternoon. Spotty showers
may develop along the sea breeze but confidence is too low to
enhance a mention beyond VCSH at this time. Best chances for
convective activity will be inland at KGNV but there confidence is
still not quite high enough to justify a more aggressive
forecast. Winds with the sea breeze will favor an easterly
direction around 8- 12 kts and may gust to around 15-20 kts at
times for coastal terminals this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure to the northeast will continue southeasterly winds
across the waters with winds strengthening with the afternoon sea
breeze development across the nearshore zones each afternoon
through Thursday. Flow turns offshore late this week as a cold
front approaches from the north. That front should push into and
through most of the area waters Friday night into Saturday before
eventually stalling somewhere south of St Augustine. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase across the waters late this
week as flow becomes offshore and chances will continue into the
weekend in the vicinity of the stalled front.

Rip Currents: Slightly elevated surf and onshore flow will lead to
a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches through
Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon hours as winds
strengthen with sea breeze development.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Water levels will continue to gradually fall along lower portions
of the Santa Fe River, with minor flooding expected to continue
near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  68  92  70 /  30  20  50  20
SSI  85  73  86  74 /  20  10  30  20
JAX  89  69  90  69 /  20  10  30  10
SGJ  87  70  88  72 /  20  10  30  10
GNV  90  67  92  68 /  30  30  40  10
OCF  91  68  94  69 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$