Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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575 FXUS62 KJAX 211812 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 212 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure over the Carolinas will continue to build SW this afternoon and settle over the SE US states tonight. This will continue the breezy onshore/NE flow along the Atlantic Coast of NE FL/SE GA this afternoon with any isolated shower activity remaining from St. Augustine southward through tonight, with scattered showers and isolated storms over the NE FL Atlantic Coastal waters. Breezy NE winds are expected at the Atlantic Coastal areas this afternoon in the 15-20G25-30 mph range and slightly less over inland areas at 10-15G20-25 mph. As the high settles over the region tonight, expect winds to decrease after sunset, remaining in the 5-10 mph range along the Atlantic Coast and dropping off to less than 5 mph over inland areas. Low temps falling into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas, light winds and clear skies should allow for another night of inland patchy/areas of fog along with locally dense fog expected towards sunrise Sunday morning. Lows in the lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather pattern through Monday with PWAT values measuring between 0.9 and 1.6 inches. Prevailing flow will be primarily out of the north and northwest as high pressure gradually shifts more towards the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to develop along Flagler and St Johns Counties through this period with a chance for patchy early morning fog to develop over inland areas. High temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 60% chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments remain ambiguous at this time. Daily high temperatures will experience a cooling trend this as the week progresses with max temps dropping to be below the seasonal average by the end of the forecast period. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Northeast winds have steadily increased today along with SCT to occasionally BKN Cumulus cloud deck across all TAF sites in the 2500-3500 ft range which will continue until sunset, when the diurnal uptick in clouds/winds will fade through the evening hours with VFR conds through 06Z at all TAF sites. Light to near calm winds over inland TAF sites will support IFR vsbys at VQQ and MVFR vsbys at GNV under clear skies, while the rest of the TAF sites will remain VFR through the night. Diurnal Cu clouds will develop once again during the morning hours on Sunday, mainly in the 2000 to 3000 ft range, but will likely remain mostly SCT through 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical disturbance next week. Rip Currents: High Risk for area beaches today becoming Moderate overnight and into Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the St Johns River basin (including the Intracoastal Waterway) and Atlantic coast of NE FL through at least the next three high tide cycles. Localized areas of low-end Moderate tidal flooding will be possible with this early afternoon`s high tide within the St Johns River between the Buckman Bridge and Mayport, including the Trout River. Lowering astronomical tidal departures and weakening onshore flow will lower tidal levels early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 71 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 67 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 86 74 88 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 66 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 67 91 72 93 / 0 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124- 125-132-133-137-138-225-325. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-133-138. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166. AM...None. && $$