172
FXUS62 KJAX 261754
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
154 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall along the big bend of
FL this evening, then track to the north. Winds will subside
greatly toward dawn as the system moves away. Precipation chances
will trail off quickly overnight as well. Lows will range from the
lower 70s inland, to the upper 70s coast.

For additional information on local impacts from Helene, please
refer to the Hurricane Local Statement product, HLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The remnants of Helene will move well to the north northwest of
the area during the day Friday, with a cold front extending from
it, stretching down the east coast, and across central FL. Friday
will largely be a dry day, except for a few showers and storms
along the frontal boundary. Away from this boundary, sunshine will
increase during the afternoon. Highs Friday will range from the
mid 80s inland to the around 90 along the coast.

The region will remain between the remnant tropical low well to the
northwest, and frontal boundary to the southeast Friday night. This
front will drift north into northern FL during the day Saturday. As
the front moves back into area, precipitation chances will increase
from south to north during the day Saturday. Lows Friday night and
Saturday night will range from the mid 60s inland SE GA, to the mid
70s along the coast. Highs Saturday will generally range in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Cold frontal boundaries will affect the region through Wednesday,
bringing chances for showers and storms. The front is expected to
push to the south on Thursday, as high pressure builds to the
northwest. The best chances for precipitation this period will be
across NE FL. Temperatures will trend above normal through
Wednesday, then trend near normal Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall in the big bend
region of FL this evening. Helene will quickly move north
northwest of the area Tonight into Friday morning. Conditions
will improve during the day on Friday, as remnants of the
tropical system moves further away to the northwest. A frontal
zone will near area through the weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: High through Friday

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Showers and storms will move through the area as outer rain bands
from Hurricane Helene push in from the south to north. Wind bands
will push through the area again by around 20z bringing numerous
showers and thunderstorms, with gusts from 35kt to 50kt possible
with the stronger storms. Lower level WS possible at TAF sites as
the gusts get going. Activity will linger through much of the TAF
period, beginning to lessen near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  84  66  86 / 100  20   0   0
SSI  79  88  73  87 /  80  30   0  10
JAX  78  90  72  90 /  90  30   0  20
SGJ  78  91  74  89 /  70  30  10  30
GNV  75  87  71  88 /  90  30  10  20
OCF  76  88  74  88 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ023-024-030-031-033-038-124-125-
     132-133-136>138-140-225-232-237-240-325-425.

     Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
     033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-
     237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ021-035-120-220-236-322-340-422-522.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-
     138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ133>136-151>154-165-166-250-264-
     350-364.

     Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-
     162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ132-149-162-163.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$