195
FXUS62 KKEY 261525
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1125 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
Hurricane Helene continues to batter the Florida Keys coastal
waters this morning with tropical storm force winds. The wind
field is massive with the tropical storm force winds extending
to approximately 300 miles east of the center with the 50 knot
winds extending to approximately 100 miles to the east of the
center. The strongest rain bands with Helene are remaining outside
of the Florida Keys coastal waters this morning with a secondary
band just clipping the westernmost waters, mainly west of the Dry
Tortugas. A few isolated rain bands are streaming northward from
Cuba but most of the Keys remain dry for the time being. Marine
platforms around the Keys are observing tropical storm force
breezes of 25 to 35 knots with frequent gusts of 35 knots to 48
knots. Island Chain communities are observing 30 to 40 mph with
gusts up to 50 mph. The highest gust observed so far for this
event has been at Boca Chica where a peak gust to 64 mph occurred
very early this morning around 430 am.

Hurricane Helene will continue moving north to northeastward
while accelerating through the afternoon and evening hours. The
storm is expected to make landfall in Florida`s Big Bend region
sometime tonight. Due to the storms` expansive wind field,
tropical storm force winds are expected to continue through a good
portion of the day for the Keys. Regarding rainfall, there is
less confidence for this but we still cannot rule out additional
squalls through the remainder of the day through the evening and
overnight as the system continues moving north northeastward. Any
squalls will be capable of bringing stronger gusts than what is
being observed outside of them. Winds will start to decrease late
this afternoon through the evening and overnight as the system
pulls away while also shifting to the south to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect across the Florida
Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Hurricane Helene, located
around 250 miles west of Key West, will continue to produce
tropical storm force breezes through the afternoon hours with the
highest seas and strongest breezes occurring now. Breezes and seas
will begin to subside late this afternoon through the evening as
Hurricane Helene makes landfall in Florida`s Big Bend Region
tonight. Breezes will continue to slacken through the weekend as
weak surface high pressure takes over.

.COASTAL FLOOD...
A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect across the Florida Keys
coastal waters through midnight tonight. The persistent tropical
storm force winds will exacerbate coastal flooding across the
Florida Keys today. These winds, combined with persistent positive
anomalies and high tide, will result in storm surge flooding of 1
to 3 feet above ground level, or mean higher high water. For
reference, the recent King Tides reached 1.5 feet above mean
higher high water. Inundation peaked for Atlantic facing
shorelines earlier this morning, and may persist through the
afternoon low tides. We have low confidence in a potential Gulf
side surge this evening, as Hurricane Helene pulls away from the
Keys.&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
After a few strong squalls over the past 12 hours, both terminals
are experiencing a lull in convection for the time being. A few
bands south of the Middle Keys could reach MTH within the hour, so a
TEMPO may be required pending their exact trajectory. As of now,
have held SHRA for the patches of lighter rain being detected on
radar. Occasional squalls are expected through the evening and
overnight hours, which will require short term amendments for winds
in excess of 50 knots and reduction in VIS and CIGS. Winds by
themselves are causing trouble due to the southeast to south wind
direction, making for perilous crosswinds. Sustained winds are
between 25 to 35 knots, and gusts are reaching the lower to upper
40s (higher winds are at EYW). Winds should slowly start to come
down as Hurricane Helene accelerates to the north. There is some
uncertainty in terms of rainfall for tomorrow, so have kept VCSH
through the entire TAF period.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ076>078.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ076>078.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Coordinator/Hazards..BT
Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Social Media.........AP/LIW
Data Acquisition.....AP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest