Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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243 FXUS63 KLBF 251720 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist through Sunday. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s Thursday across the eastern panhandle and Cherry County. A near record high is possible for Valentine. - No threat for precipitation over the next 7 days. - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A strong upper level ridge was located across the western U.S. An upper trough from Hudson Bay Canada extended south through the Great Lakes into the southern Mississippi Valley with a closed low centered over eastern Missouri. Also of note, tropical storm Helene was located west of Cozumel Mexico. At the surface, weak high pressure was centered from the Texas panhandle northward across Nebraska. Clear skies were present across the region. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT, ranged from 50 degrees at Ainsworth and O`Neill to 44 degrees at North Platte. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The forecast concerns in the short term are the above normal temperatures and fire weather. The upper ridge will remain centered today over Colorado and New Mexico with a ridge axis extending north through the Dakotas all the way north across Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada. Meanwhile an upper trough will extend across the Pacific Northwest. This will direct very warm air over the Rockies into the Northern and Central High Plains. 850MB temperature anomalies across 5 to 10 celsius above normal across the northwestern half of the forecast area. Went warmer for highs today, using the NBM 75th percentile, from the mid to upper 80s from the western Sandhills into north central Nebraska to the low 80s southeastern zones. Wind will be light and variable this morning, then become south at 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Tonight, a surface trough will remain from eastern Montana through eastern Colorado. This will keep winds south from 5 to 10 mph, except gusting to 15 mph across the northwest Sandhills. This will keep lows from 3 to 8 degrees above normal, from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Went below the latest NBM for lows, to include a blend of the MET and MAV guidance. On Thursday, the ridge axis aloft will become positively tilted, extending from New Mexico, northeast into the western Great Lakes. This is a result of an upper trough moving through Montana and Wyoming. This will push a surface trough into northwestern Nebraska. The very warm air aloft will migrate eastward from the front range of Colorado and Wyoming into western Nebraska. The latest NBM, the basis for highs, has trended a few degrees warmer. Highs from 90 to 95 are forecast across the eastern panhandle into Cherry County with mid to upper 80s across the remainder of the area. The latest MAV statistical guidance has 95 for a high at VTN Thursday which would tie the record high for Sept. 26th. The forecast high is 93. The ECMWF extreme forecast index and shift of tails from this morning highlights the panhandle and northwest Sandhills in a threat for abnormally warm Thursday. Across the northwest Sandhills where the warmest temperatures reside, a surface trough will lead to lighter southwest winds. Further east, a surface pressure gradient will exist with southerly winds 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph across north central Nebraska. The northwest Sandhills should reach a minimum humidity near 15 percent. However, with light winds, we should avoid critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Further east, we will see some 25 mph wind gusts in the Valentine area, however low level moisture, should be sufficient enough to forgo fire headlines. In summary, near critical fire weather conditions across the northwest Sandhills, with elevated fire weather conditions elsewhere. Grass fuels are cured and ready to burn, so any fires that start may spread. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 For Friday through Sunday, the upper level ridge will persist over the region. This will keep highs around 15 degrees above normal, mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front is forecast to move in Sunday night, cooling highs back into the 70s for Monday. A strong signal for windy conditions Monday(northerly 15 to 30 mph). An upper trough shown by the GFS and ECMWF will drop into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday, bringing fairly strong Canadian surface high pressure near 1030mb in Monday night. Highs now trended cooler for Tuesday from 65 to around 70. As for the threat for frost, the NBM ensembles are indicating a 25 to 50 percent probability for lows below 36 degrees across the northwest Sandhills Monday night. Will need to follow model trends for this in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Expect clear skies at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals over the next 24 hour period. Winds will be light from the south today and tonight for the KVTN terminal and variable at under 10 KTS for the KLBF terminal. After mid morning Thursday, look for southerly winds to increase at both terminals with wind speeds around 10 KTS at the KLBF terminal and 10 to 15 KTS at the KVTN terminal. Wind gusts may approach 25 KTS at the KVTN terminal around 18z Thursday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Buttler