Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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030 FXUS63 KLBF 271112 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm weather continues today through Sunday. A strong cold front Monday will cool temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. - Critical fire weather may develop Sunday and Monday. The concern is low humidity both days with strong south winds Sunday followed by a strong cold front Monday which has the potential to produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph from the north. - No rain is expected during the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 A weak Pacific cold front is drifting through wrn Nebraska this morning. The front will continue moving south and east today and washout tonight across KS. Very modest cold air advection is expected behind the front and warm air advection will resume Saturday. So, the temperature forecast continues to use a blend of the warmer MET/MAV guidance plus the NBM 95th percentile for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Saturday. This strategy worked fairly well with Thursday`s highs. Winds will remain light at mostly 10 mph or less today through Saturday and the reason for this is the weak pressure gradient between sfc high pressure across the nrn Plains and sfc low pressure across the Pacific NW. A fresh batch of dry Pacific air will spread into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and Saturday. PWAT falls from 0.70 inches to 0.60, according to the model consensus and h850-300mb RH falls from 35 percent to just 20 to 25 percent. All of this supports clear skies and short but strong daytime heating which is the mentality for leaning warm on the high temperature forecast. The temperature forecast Friday night uses the cooler guidance blend for lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This forecast is slightly warmer than the NBM 25th percentile. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 There is little change in the extended forecast. Very warm weather is in place Sunday followed by a strong cold front Monday and a second weaker cold front late Wednesday. The warm weather Sunday is being driven by two features; an upper level ridge across the Four-corners region as a source for warm air advection and sfc low pressure across the nrn Plains and srn Canada to draw the air into Nebraska. The series of Pacific cold fronts and associated dry air pretty much seals a dry forecast for the next 7 days. Other than a brief pool of moisture with the cold front Monday, PWAT will remain less than 0.65 inches through next Thursday and h850-300mb RH is generally 40 percent or less today through Thursday. There are no rain chances in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning across western and north central Nebraska. North winds this morning become easterly this afternoon, at around 5 to 15kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Little if any rainfall is expected across western and north central Nebraska during the next 7 days and elevated fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the region through at least Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of western and north central Nebraska Sunday and Monday. The concern is low humidity both days with strong south winds Sunday followed by a strong cold front Monday which has the potential to produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph from the north. Otherwise, very dry air will remain across the region leading to low humidity. Cooler weather next Thursday may cause afternoon humidity to remain above 20 percent. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Brown FIRE WEATHER...CDC