Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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462 FXUS64 KLIX 250856 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Still watching a cold front to our north which hasn`t moved very much over the last day or so. Eventually, the broader scale upper trough will amplify further and it should bring the boundary through the region. With the upper levels continuing to rapidly cool, lapse rates will be on the favorable side for convective development. The only limiting factor will be copious amounts of dry air in the mid and upper levels that will only allow the strongest updrafts through. That said, with the stronger updrafts there could be an isolated strong to severe storm with large hail (H5 temps around -11C) and strong winds (DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG) being the primary hazard. Dry and a very slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the region by Thursday. Carried POPs only for the far eastern MS Gulf COast Counties and perhaps lower Plaquemines closer to the frontal boundary. Temperatures both overnight and during the daylight hours will be a degree or two below average...at least on Thursday. Until the front slides through today temperatures will continue to remain on the warmer/humid side. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 As TS Helene races northward toward the Panhandle of Florida the 568dam H5 low will center near Memphis. This will then take the TC north and eventually perhaps northwestward once it reaches the ENE or NE periphery of the ULL well inland. Being removed from the TC there will be a good bit of subsidence on the far outer periphery, which calls into question any POPs for this timeframe. At this juncture, decided that with the elements that will keep us on the dry side, removed all POPs outside of potential diurnally driven marine convection. By early next week the broader scale trough will final begin to spread east of the region. With that ridging starts to nose in from the west. This will increase heights and thicknesses, which should warm us up a bit back to around or slightly above average to start the month of October. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Currently VFR at all forecast terminals. That being said, certainly some potential for MVFR ceilings, as KREG is reporting BKN025. A bit better chance for MVFR ceilings toward sunrise with the approaching cold front from the north. Low level convergence may be lacking somewhat along the front on Wednesday, so not highly confident in convective development. Best chances may be KMCB, KHDC, KASD, KGPT. Will carry VCTS at those, and VCSH elsewhere or not at all. Main threat of precipitation, such as it is, should be gone prior to 00z Thursday, with VFR conditions beyond that point. Expect winds to increase somewhat beyond 00z Thursday, but the only terminals that might see impacts during this forecast package would be KNEW and perhaps KMSY, as cooler, drier air mixes down over Lake Pontchartrain. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will develop today as seas begin to build in response to TS Helene moving northward from the western portions of the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, despite the building seas, gradient winds will also increase with some gale force gusts not out of the question. Issued SCA for most waters including the tidal lakes. Gale Watches are in effect for most of the offshore Gulf Waters. By Friday, the storm will have moved well inland over Georgia...or points well east of our region. Seas will begin to relax then and especially going into the upcoming weekend. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 85 65 82 60 / 50 10 10 0 BTR 91 69 87 64 / 40 10 0 0 ASD 89 69 86 64 / 30 20 10 10 MSY 89 73 86 67 / 30 20 10 0 GPT 89 70 84 65 / 30 30 20 10 PQL 92 71 86 66 / 30 40 40 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ572- 575-577. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for GMZ572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ575- 577. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for GMZ575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF