210
FXUS64 KLIX 260813
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
313 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A cold front that was responsible for the development of a few
scattered showers and even an isolated strong/severe storm or two
continues to push south and east into the Gulf of Mexico this
morning. In the wake of this front, much drier air is filtering
into the region, which will put a stop to any/all rainfall for our
region through the short term (and long term period...see long
term). The synoptic pattern is rather interesting to say the
least. First, a cold core ULL currently sits over the Ohio River
Valley to the north. To the south and east Hurricane Helene is
making its way north toward the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend Region
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As it`s being pulled north, the
ULL will influence the system and allow it to move back west over
the TN River Valley on the northeast periphery before it becomes
absorbed by the extra tropical feature. That`s interesting, but
all that has for us is drier air being pulled southward. Marine
conditions (see marine section) will be the only real impact. Oh,
and cooler temperatures with heights/thicknesses aloft dropping in
response to the ULL trying to make it`s way a bit closer to the
CWFA. Overall, not a big cool down, but a degree or two below
average at least for today and tomorrow can be expected. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

By Friday night the mid-tropospheric trough or baroclinic ULL across
the TN River Valley will have ingested whatever is left of
Helene. Our region will remain on the dry side. However, we will
continue to enjoy the slightly...ever so slightly cooler daytime
temperatures with the lower heights and thicknesses. The feature
does start to spread east and exit our region through the weekend
and early next week allowing for heights to increase for the 2nd
half of the weekend. Despite a weak H5 weakness that trails behind
the main upper low, there really isn`t much in the way of
features to write home about here. Again since the heights have
somewhat increase, temperatures bump back up to around average
give or take. Overnight lows with the drier air filtering in from
the north and northeast, expect along and north of I10 to
generally be in the middle or upper 60s. The long term should
remain rainfree through at least Wednesday. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Other than these pesky storms still impacting a few areas the only
terminals that may still see impacts will be MSY and possibly HUM
over the next few hours. After remaining convection moves out of
the area VFR conditions are then expected. Drier air will
infiltrate from the north allowing with breezy northerly winds
across much of the area tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Marine conditions will continue to decline through the morning
with winds and seas continuing to build across the local waters.
Tidal lakes and sounds will experience winds up to around 30kts.
Offshore, over the Gulf water, winds will increase 25 to 30kt
closer to shore and could gust as high at 40 knots over the outer
south and east zones. For this reason the Gale Watch has been
upgraded to a Gale Warning respectively. Otherwise, in those outer
waters, wave heights may increase to 15 to 20 feet as Hurricane
Helene continues north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico increasing
both swell and wind waves from the stronger gradient winds. As
Helene continues to march northward later tonight and early
Friday, conditions will gradually improve through Friday morning
and especially by Friday afternoon and evening. Going into the
upcoming weekend and new workweek, expect conditions be generally
be favorable across the local waters. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  59  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  87  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  87  63  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  86  66  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  86  64  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  88  65  87  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ572-575-
     577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ572-575-
     577.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ575-577.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RDF