Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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111 FXUS64 KLIX 312332 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 446 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Broad rainfall has dropped temperatures up to 8-10 degrees below forecast, so made adjustments to T grid to reflect actuals. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Tonight through Saturday... Generally, a couple more upper level impulses will move through over the next couple of days. There is still a ton of model uncertainty in the timing of these storms. And in general, the models, especially the CAMs, are going to continue to struggle to pinpoint timing until storms are ongoing and start firing up (real-time to near-time weather basically). So, the timing is a factor that will remain quite uncertain over the next few days. But overall, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours with peak daytime heating. These storms will have the risk of hail and damaging winds (30-60mph), based on the lapse rates and instability available. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern (PWs are quite high, climatologically) and could cause minor flooding or ponding on local roads and make visibility while driving difficult. The localized flooding risk would be higher for urban or vulnerable locations, as is common for this time of year. Overall, stay weather aware over the next few days as we continue in this unsettled pattern for the atmosphere. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Sunday through mid-week... Sunday and Monday, several more upper level impulses will be moving through the area. These will look pretty similar to the last few days, and there are still a lot of uncertainties in the models regarding timing of the best convection. Generally though, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected, especially during the afternoon/evening hours on Sunday and Monday. On Monday, the bulk of the rainfall will be more for our northern areas, but this could change as we get closer. These storms will, based on model soundings, likely have the risk of locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and winds (30-60mph). Stay weather aware on Sunday and Monday of next week. Tuesday through mid-week, conditions should be a bit drier as a weak ridge starts to build in over the area. Generally, rain chances will be lower. An isolated shower will be possible, but likely will not be severe at this time, looking at the models. Temperatures will be a little warmer though, as a result. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VCTS has been the headline with a line of thunderstorms moving west to east across the area. Storm intensity has decreased and most terminals are now VCSH. As the evening progresses, terminals will improve to VFR, with exceptions of MVFR due to lowered ceilings and reduced visibilities at KMCB and KBTR in the early morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Benign marine conditions overall. Generally, southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail with moderate to calm winds (10-15kts) throughout the forecast period. Showers and storms will be possible every day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, through Tuesday which could produce locally higher gusts. MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 83 67 86 / 60 80 20 60 BTR 73 89 73 90 / 30 80 20 60 ASD 73 88 71 89 / 60 90 30 60 MSY 76 88 75 88 / 40 90 30 60 GPT 75 85 73 86 / 70 90 50 60 PQL 73 86 71 87 / 70 90 50 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...DS MARINE...MSW