784
FXUS65 KLKN 232112
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
212 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An increased probability of precipitation is expected
for Friday and Saturday. Pattern shifts Sunday as an upper ridge
begins to build over the intermountain west. Fair weather and
quickly warming temperatures are expected the first half of next
week.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night.

Northwesterly flow over the region continues to turn westerly
tonight ahead of the next incoming disturbance anticipated for
Friday with dry weather and mostly variable light to calm winds.
Overnight low temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night
with most residing in the low 30s to low 40s.

Upper disturbance moves in Friday with increasing probability of
precipitation. Isolated to scattered showers will be across the
forecast area beginning in the afternoon and persisting thru
Friday night. A thunderstorm or two are possible across portions
of central Nevada in the afternoon, though instability doesnt
look overly impressive. Nonetheless, occasional lightning strikes
and gusty outflow winds can be expected. Any rain accumulation
will be less than 0.10 for the valleys. Westerly surface winds
will be breezy during the afternoon as well with gusts around
20mph. Daytime high temperatures look to reside in the low 60s to
low 70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday

A strong low pressure system and cold front is expected to move
into the region Saturday, bringing widespread showers and gusty
west-northwest winds to the CWA. A 25-30% chance of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms is possible across much of eastern Nevada
during the morning hours on Saturday, with showers ending from
west to east Saturday afternoon as drier air filters into the
state. The trough exits the region Saturday night with rising
heights promoting warmer and drier weather but still mild
temperatures for Sunday. Highs for the weekend will be in the 60s
to 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Sunday morning could be quite
cold with widespread freezing temperatures across northern Nevada
valleys in the lower 30s.

500 mb heights under a building ridge over the region will allow
for climbing temperatures and dry conditions for early next week.
Highs will be primarily in the 80s by Tuesday. A weak upper-level
short wave is expected to bring a few showers across far
northeastern Nevada Tuesday but nothing significant. Model
guidance continues to paint a dry picture for late next week with
highs reaching into the 80s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals with breezes at KTPH dissipating this evening.
Probability of precipitation increases Friday afternoon and Friday
night with VCSH expected.

KEKO is AMD not SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Cooler temperatures the past several days have
slowed the rate of snow melt and flows on faster responding small
creeks and streams. Temperatures will quickly warm Sunday and
early next week and flows on many small creeks and streams are
expected to again rise, possibly into action stage for some, such
as Lamoille Creek. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with
Battle Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to
enter action stage early next week.

Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/93/92/92