049
FXUS65 KLKN 222120
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active pattern continues thru Saturday with increased
probability of precipitation Friday and Saturday. Pattern shifts
Sunday as an upper ridge begins to build over the intermountain
west. Fair weather and quickly warming temperatures are expected
the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.

Upper trof and attendant cold front continue to progress east and
out of the forecast area tonight with a cooler air mass moving
into northern Nevada. Concurrently, showers and thunderstorms will
taper off across northern Nevada this evening and tonight with
strong winds also diminishing. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the mid 20s to upper 30s across the forecast area.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Thursday night as weaker
northwesterly flow turns westerly ahead of the next upper
disturbance. Weather will be fair yet cool with generally light
northerly winds gusting 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Daytime
high temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight
lows mostly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.

An upper trough is expected to move into the region Friday with an
additional, stronger upper-low moving into the Great Basin Region
by Saturday. This is expected to bring increased chances for
showers into central Nevada late Friday with more widespread
showers and gusty west-northwest winds accompanying a diffuse cold
front for Saturday. Thunderstorms across much of eastern Nevada
are also expected Saturday. Model guidance continues to show a
stronger precipitation signal with much of ELko county and White
Pine county having a 30% or greater chance of reaching or
exceeding wetting rains of one tenth of an inch or more from late
Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will remain cool, rising
mainly into the upper 60s Friday before dropping around 5 degrees
Saturday for the northern portions of the state. Lows Friday
morning will be quite cold, in the lower 30s across much of
northeastern Nevada with a mix of 30s and 40s by Saturday morning
as cloud cover increases across the area.

High confidence exists for dry condtions early next week as a
ridge builds over the area beginning Sunday. Winds will be fairly
light through Tuesday but southwest winds will increase by
midweek with troughing slowly working its way back into the the
PacNW. Temperatures will rise accordingly with a building ridge
pattern with highs into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. There will be mid and upper-level cloud cover across
much of northern Nevada tonight but ceilings will remain above
3000 feet AGL. Gusty west to northwest winds will be the primary
impact at TAF sites through up to 06Z this evening.

KEKO is AMD not SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As high elevation spring snowmelt continues, many
streams and creeks coming off snow covered terrain will experience
elevated flows. This weeks cooler temperatures have slowed the
rate of snowmelt, however elevated flows persist. Late this
weekend and into next week as warmer temperatures return, expect
flows on many creeks and rivers to rise again, possibly up into
action stage.

Wildhorse Reservoir is in action stage. Recent cooler temperatures
are allowing the reservoir level to gradually lower, however the
level is expected to remain in action stage all week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/93/93/93