Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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777 FXUS63 KLMK 251812 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 212 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Severe storms possible Sunday into Sunday night. Main hazard is damaging winds with localized hurricane-force gusts possible. Tornadoes, large hail, and flooding cannot be ruled out either. * Unsettled pattern will continue into Monday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Most of the thunderstorms that were moving over the CWA ended as the last cell got a boost over Jefferson County, KY. Then it quickly faded. A few light sprinkles remain, but the drying trend is expected to continue for the next few hours. A cold front is just to the northwest of the CWA which can be seen on satellite imagery as a area of stratus. The front isn`t expected to push much farther south, but it is expected to pivot near the river as a surface low crosses the Plains towards the Midwest. The low ceilings near the front are expected to thin and lift during the rest of the day. Showers and thunderstorms aren`t expected to be widespread but will likely continue in an isolated fashion. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 A subtle upper level shortwave trough is shifting east across the Lower Ohio Valley early this morning, while a primary closed low lifts NNE near the MN/SW ON border. At the surface, an attendant cold front extends through eastern WI, central IL, and southern MO. Robust convection out ahead of the cold front has been diving southeast along the instability gradient, and is now arriving in portions of west-central KY. These storm clusters are likely to continue into south-central KY while remaining sub-severe. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg should allow these storms to at least maintain their intensity over the next couple of hours before gradual weakening. A low-level nocturnal inversion is likely to continue strengthening with time. However, given their current intensity and upstream ASOS/KY Mesonet observations, wind gusts to 40 mph are possible. Small hail, frequent lightning, and brief torrential rainfall are also expected. Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible in central KY and southern IN through mid-morning as convective outflow and modest mid-level ascent interact with sufficient moisture and elevated instability. Brief heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds will be the main hazards with any storms. Lows this morning will be in the 60s. Conditions will trend drier this afternoon in the wake of the morning wave. However, the arrival of the weak sfc cold front should spark off isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Partial clearing this afternoon will allow the atmosphere to destabilize some, but deep-layer shear will be quite weak. So storm activity should be sparse and disorganized, with most staying dry as temps warm into the lower 80s. With the loss of daytime heating, mainly dry conditions look likely tonight with lows in the 60s. Attention then turns to a developing low pressure system over the Plains. We`ll see increasing high clouds during the early morning hours of Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Organized severe storms are possible on Sunday, with a few spots of uncertainty to work through. Low-level jetting increases and a warm front lifts through the region early in the day, which could touch off scattered showers and storms. We`ll break into the warm sector in the afternoon, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing as the day progresses. Timing of when we destabilize, and the presence of forcing, could make a significant difference in convective mode and timing of the severe threat. Any storms that can break through a mid-level cap should be able to organize into a squall line, with significant damaging wind potential, especially late in the day. Not sold on forcing, especially within the warm sector, so confidence is limited through at least mid-afternoon Sunday. If the atmosphere reloads quickly enough to destabilize the warm sector, that could open the door to severe weather sooner than later if there is any kind of forcing. Some model soundings are hinting at sfc dewpoints in the mid 70s, which seems a bit overdone. Confidence is higher that dewpoints will be around 70, which still supports ~2000J/kg of CAPE, which is sufficient for deep convection with the strengthening shear. Most likely scenario for a squall line capable of significant damaging winds would be initiating ahead of the cold front over southern Illinois, and pushing across southern Indiana and central Kentucky Sunday evening. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential would be the greatest on any line segments that can become oriented perpendicular to the shear vector. The cold front finally pushes into the Ohio Valley Monday morning, bringing an end to the severe weather threat, but shower and storm chances will remain with us through the day as the upper trof axis lags behind slightly. Faster westerlies and deep mixing will yield a breezy day in between the scattered showers. Drier air finally arrives Monday night, ushering in cooler than normal temperatures and more comfortable dewpoints for most of the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 A cold front has dropped to near the Ohio River. This has brought a layer of stratus to HNB and near SDF. Model guidance has tried to dissipate and lift this cloud cover all day, but the layer seems a little more persistent. Southeast of the stratus, cumulus extends into the BWG and LEX areas, so for the next few hours, there could be some bumping in-between MVFR and VFR levels. Outside of trying to determine ceiling levels, things are fairly quiet. There is an isolated chance that convection could impact SDF, LEX, or RGA this afternoon/evening, but chances are low enough to leave out of the TAFs. Tonight, LEX and RGA could see some limited fogging depending on cloud cover. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...KDW SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...KDW