Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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399 FXUS66 KLOX 251548 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 848 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...25/321 AM. A warming trend is expected through early next week, most notably away from the coast in response departing trough. Night to morning low clouds will become less common away from the coast during this time frame. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/847 AM. ***UPDATE*** The marine inversion early this morning ranged from around 2900 ft deep at VBG to around 3600 ft deep at LAX. Low clouds covered much of the coast and vlys this morning, altho some breaks in the low cloud cover were noted especially along the southern SBA County coast and into some of the VTU County vlys. The low clouds are expected to clear back to or off the coast by early this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies for most areas. Gusty NW winds will persist over SW SBA County thru this afternoon, with gusty W-NW winds for the Antelope Vly into the foothills and I- 5 Corridor. Winds are expected to be mostly sub- Advisory thru this afternoon. Elsewhere, breezy to gusty SW-NW winds can be expected this afternoon. ***From Previous Discussion*** A warming trend is likely through Monday, especially for elevations above 1500 feet or so as the marine layer and associated low clouds will likely shrink in height and coverage in response to a departing trough and associated increasing weight of the atmosphere. Most coastal areas will only warm 3-6 degrees with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s by Monday. Elevations above 1000-1500 feet and especially interior areas will see warming of 10-15 degrees with highs in the 80s to near 90. West to northwest flow will continue through Monday with a 30-50 percent chance of advisory level winds each afternoon and evening for areas prone to northwest winds such as southwest Santa Barbara County and western Antelope Valley. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/323 AM. We have only moderate confidence in the forecast mid week and beyond as the timing of weak trough/ridge systems becomes out of sync within our guidance. This will have limited impacts at the coast with daytime highs likely within three degrees of forecast with continued mid 60s to mid 70s for daytime highs. Away from the coast, including many coastal valleys, may be 5-8 degrees off of the forecast and could be the difference between highs near 80 or 90-95. Night to morning low clouds will likely prevail for coastal areas, expanding into the valleys and lower coastal mountains at times through this period as a weak trough or two progresses through the region. Seasonably breezy onshore to northwest winds will likely continue each afternoon to evening with interior areas prone to west to northwest winds as well as southwest Santa Barbara County potentially reaching advisory levels at times. && .AVIATION...25/1230Z. Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5600 feet with a temperature of 11 C. High confidence in desert TAFs and low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence in coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties in the behavior of the marine layer stratus. CIGs, especially south of Point Conception, are very patchy and dissipating and reforming constantly, and will likely continue the behavior through the morning. Otherwise, timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs will likely scatter and reform through the morning. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs will likely scatter and reform through the morning, with a 30% chance of continuing the behavior through whole period. && .MARINE...25/843 AM. Moderate to high confidence in forecast, with higher confidence in winds relative to seas. Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to continue through this weekend and much of next week. Winds may briefly drop below advisory levels during the morning and very early afternoon hours today through Monday, but restrengthen to SCA levels by late afternoon. There is a 30-40% chance of Gale Force winds Tuesday night through Wednesday. As for seas, starting Tuesday morning seas will build to SCA levels and becoming steep and choppy through at least Thursday night. Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds will push into the western portion of the waters this afternoon and evening. Then, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds and seas are likely (60-70%), with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds. Across the southern inner waters, there is a 70-80% chance of SCA level winds across the the Santa Barbara Channel (strongest in the western portion) returning this afternoon and evening, and a 40% chance of returning as early as late this morning. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Channel each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. South of the Channel Islands, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds pushing into the western portion of the southern inner waters tonight with choppy SCA seas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/Sirard AVIATION...Lund MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...Munroe weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox