Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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981 FXUS66 KLOX 241900 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1200 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...24/946 AM. Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will make recurring night through morning low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle, with low clouds reaching the foothills. There is a twenty percent chance of a light rain shower this afternoon at mountain locations. Expect better clearing and warmer temperatures starting Sunday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...24/955 AM. ***UPDATE*** Low clouds continue to blanket most of the CWA, although satellite imagery shows slightly better clearing than yesterday. Temperatures are actually reflecting that along the coast with many locations 2-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday under a bit more sun. HREF still showing a 20% or less chance of a shower in the mountains this afternoon. Confident in the advisory- strength afternoon and early evening winds. ***From Previous Discussion*** Another in a seemingly endless series of days with a very deep marine layer across the region, now over 5000 feet deep. Low clouds have pushed all the way into the mountain slopes and into the far interior valleys of SLO and SBA Counties, and some clouds could even spill into the Antelope Valley for a few hours this morning. With the very deep marine layer in place, cyclonic flow aloft, and some low level lift, there could be some drizzle this morning, especially in the foothills and mtn slopes south of Point Conception. A positively tilted trough extending from the Pac NW into northern CA will sharpen some as it moves into the forecast area this afternoon. There may be enough lift and instability within the deep moist layer to bring a few showers to the mountains this afternoon and early this evening. With the trough axis remaining to the west of the region for most of the day, and with very strong onshore gradients, expect another slow clearing day. Skies may stay mostly cloudy for much of the day, especially in coastal and valley areas of L.A./VTU Counties. Strong onshore gradients will likely produce advisory level winds in the Antelope Valley and the adjacent foothills, and Wind Advisories are in effect there for this afternoon and evening. Winds may get close to advisory levels as well through the Highway 14 Corridor in the mountains of L.A. County, and advisories may have to be extended into that area as well. It will be another unseasonably cool day with highs topping out in the 60s in most coastal and valley areas, with a few 70-degree readings possible. N-S gradients will increase across SLO and SBA Counties this afternoon and evening, and there will be some subsidence once the trough axis passes that area. Expect gusty NW winds to reach advisory levels across much of southwestern SBA Counties this afternoon and evening. The trough axis will swing through the region this evening and early tonight, then a broad NW flow pattern aloft will set up across the area later tonight and Sat. The models show some reduction in low clouds tonight, which make sense since cooling aloft will wipe out any weak marine inversion. Expect a rather less solid and rather haphazard cloud field tonight and Sat morning, and there should be more in the way of sunshine in most areas Sat afternoon. Due to increased sunshine and small height rises, expect a couple of degrees of warming in most areas Sat, though temps should still be below normal. Strong N-S gradients will likely produce another round of advisory level winds across the southwestern coast of SBA County and the western Santa Ynez mtns late Sat afternoon and evening. The flow aloft will become more zone Sat night and Sun, and heights will rise a bit. Expect the marine layer to reorganize, but it will likely be less deep, with night thru morning low clouds and fog confined mainly to coastal and valley areas Sat night/Sun morning. Expect mostly sunny skies in most areas Sunday afternoon, with a few degrees of warming due to height rises, warming at 950 mb and slight weakening of the onshore gradients. High temps will likely rise into the 80s in the Antelope Valley, and could even approach 80 degrees in the Salinas and Cuyama Valleys. Temps should rise into the mid to possibly upper 70s in the warmest valley locations in L.A. and Ventura Counties. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/526 AM. Models are in fairly good agreement in showing an upper low moving toward the coast of southwestern Canada Mon and Tue, then dropping slowly southeastward thru the Pacific NW Wed and Thu. Heights across the region gradually rise Mon and Tue, then change little for Wed and Thu. Onshore gradients remain rather strong thru the period. Overall, expect rather benign weather Mon thru Thu, with areas of night/morning low clouds in coastal and most valley areas. Max temps should rise a bit Mon and Tue, with little change Wed and Thu, with max temps Tue thru Thu at near normal levels for the end of May. && .AVIATION...24/1859Z. At 1755Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5500 feet with a temperature of 11 C. High confidence in desert TAFs. Low confidence in remainder of TAFs. There is a 60-70% chance of MVFR CIGs 03Z-06Z Sat, except for KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA where there is a 20% chance of MVFR cigs developing after 10Z. KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of BKN025 conds as early as 02Z Sat, followed by a 60% chance of BKN025 cigs until 21Z. Flight Cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Low confidence in winds from 12Z-18Z Sat, with a 30% chance of the SE wind reaching 10 kts. KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs are likely to bounce between BKN015-BKN025 after 07Z Sat. && .MARINE...24/843 AM. Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence in wind forecast relative to sea forecast. Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected through at least late tonight, with a 60-80 percent chance of SCA winds continuing through Sunday. Winds may drop below SCA levels late Sat night/Sun morning. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA level winds on Monday increasing to 60 percent on Tuesday. Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is an 80 percent chance of SCA conds this afternoon and night, and again on Saturday afternoon and night. There is a 30 percent chance of SCA winds during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday. Across the southern inner waters, there is a 70-80 percent chance of SCA level winds across the western and central portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, and again Saturday afternoon and evening. Farther to the south, there is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA level winds pushing into the western portion of the southern inner waters this evening and again Saturday evening. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels Sunday through Tuesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 349-351-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...DB AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...jld weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox