Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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605 FXUS64 KLUB 221936 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon across portions of the forecast area. As of 2 PM CDT, the upper low is sitting over northeast Colorado and is expected to continue ejecting northeastward tonight into tomorrow. The 700mb trough axis associated with the upper low will also move eastward tonight, with increased southwesterly flow this afternoon/evening. Atmospheric profiles have increased moisture from the surface to 700mb, which can be seen with the recent increase in shower and storm activity across the area. The cold front has been nearly stationary the entire morning stretching from a mesolow in the Permian Basin and northeastward across the far southern Rolling Plains. Thus, much of the shower and storm activity today is post-frontal across the forecast area. However, there is enough elevated instability present this afternoon for a few strong to severe storms, especially east of the I-27/HWY-87 corridor. Main threats would be hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may be possible as well with PWATs around 1.5" to 1.75" (highest farther east) across the aforementioned area. Low clouds continue to persist through much of the day today with tricky temperatures following the front. All in all, temperatures have remained steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the forecast area where the clouds are present. With continued rain chances through late tonight and cool northerly surface winds, temperatures are expected to drop into the 40s and lower 50s along the Caprock and mid to upper 50s off the Caprock. Precipitation chances will taper tonight with clearing skies from north to south into tomorrow morning. A very Fall-like day tomorrow (only one day after the official first day of Fall), with temperatures in the 70s, along with light and variable winds under a weak surface high passing over the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 On Tuesday, we`ll see an upper-level trough and closed low diving through the northern and Central Plains while a stout upper-level ridge amplifies northward across the Rockies. At the surface, the old frontal zone across south-central Texas will be washing out and lee troughing will return to West Texas. With daytime heating bringing temperatures back into the 80s there should be a decent theta-e axis extending northward through the forecast area into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. It appears that the lift from upper trough and its accompanying front approaching from the north should initiate some t-storm activity across the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. This activity would then progress south- southeastward Tuesday afternoon and evening, favoring passing through our counties in the Rolling Plains. The front will race all the way to the Gulf Coast bringing cool surface ridging to our area on Wednesday with highs likely not making it out of the 70s to lower 80s with a little bit of uncertainty in temps based on the extent of cloud cover. The latest model trends suggest the upper flow will entered a blocky/stagnant pattern and the upper low could wobble back westward as its flow interacts with a tropical system in the northeastern Gulf. Although confidence in the exact evolution of this unusual pattern is not high, we are fairly confident that this will keep cool, east to northeasterly flow in place across our area through Friday, and we may even have a chance of moisture wrapping around the low and bringing rain back into the forecast, at least to the eastern sections of the forecast area. The latest GFS run supports this and its temps have come in line with the cooler ECMWF and blended guidance. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the day today through late tonight at all three TAF sites. Skies will begin to break and then clear from north to south through the morning hours. Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening at all three sites with potential reduced visibility and gusty erratic winds with any storms that move directly over the TAF sites. Otherwise, breezy north winds of 15 to 20 knots will diminish tonight to around 10 knots or less. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...11