188
FXUS64 KLZK 010523
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Unsettled weather has returned to the Natural State over the past 24
hours. Several rounds of rain/embedded thunder have contd to affect
the FA today. Along with the clouds and rainfall, a stationary fntl
bndry was situated along the Highway 67/167 and I-30 corridor. This
has resulted in quite the range of temps at mid aftn, with 70s and
lower 80s common, with 60s noted over NW AR.

One upper impulse is currently in the process of departing north AR,
with lingering showers noted. A more potent upper system (MCV) was
located ovr SW AR. Where cloud cover has thinned out, daytime heating
is allowing sctd convection to form. A few of these storms could pulse
up and possibly bring some gusty winds, we are not looking for organized
severe storms into this evening.

Once this aforementioned MCV moves out of the FA later tngt, PoPs wl
be diminishing fm the west heading into early Sat. Expect patchy fog
and low clouds to return late tngt into early Sat. Conds wl improve
thereafter as W/NW winds return and allow the clouds to start
eroding. THis wl be short-lived as another weather maker brings
rain chcs back to the state on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

More of the same as we enter the work week with additional
shortwaves expected to move through the midsouth providing continued
chances of shower and thunderstorm activity. With MCS season upon
us, will need to monitor overnight activity Sunday night and
possibly Monday night.

Relief, for at least part of the state, is possible by mid week
where long term models are indicating a strong Upper Ridge to build
over the SW Conus. Modified the grids to better reflect this pattern
with higher POPs across the NE half of the forecast area.
Temperatures will generally be at or above seasonal normals during
the day, and slightly milder than average at night due to the
increased cloud cover and RH through the majority of the
overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be impacting the
northern, central, and southeastern sites of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KPBF,
and KLLQ before moving out of the state on Saturday morning. Lowered
CIGS will impact all terminals to as low as IFR flight category at
times before VFR conditions will prevail from west to east during
the day on Saturday. VSBY will be reduced across many sites to as
low as IFR flight category at times between patchy fog and pockets
of heavy rain/storm activity until Saturday morning after sunrise. A
return to overall VFR flight conditions will occur around midday on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  65  86  69 /  20  10  30  20
Camden AR         87  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  10
Harrison AR       79  62  83  67 /  10  10  30  10
Hot Springs AR    85  68  85  69 /  20  10  40  20
Little Rock   AR  85  68  87  72 /  10  10  30  20
Monticello AR     86  70  86  72 /  10  20  40  10
Mount Ida AR      85  66  84  68 /  20  10  40  20
Mountain Home AR  80  63  85  67 /  10   0  20  10
Newport AR        82  66  86  69 /  20  10  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     86  70  86  70 /  10  20  40  20
Russellville AR   85  66  86  69 /  10  10  30  20
Searcy AR         84  66  86  69 /  20  10  30  20
Stuttgart AR      85  69  85  71 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...74