123
FXUS64 KLZK 311957
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
257 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Unsettled weather has returned to the Natural State over the past 24
hours. Several rounds of rain/embedded thunder have contd to affect
the FA today. Along with the clouds and rainfall, a stationary fntl
bndry was situated along the Highway 67/167 and I-30 corridor. This
has resulted in quite the range of temps at mid aftn, with 70s and
lower 80s common, with 60s noted over NW AR.

One upper impulse is currently in the process of departing north AR,
with lingering showers noted. A more potent upper system (MCV) was
located ovr SW AR. Where cloud cover has thinned out, daytime heating
is allowing sctd convection to form. A few of these storms could pulse
up and possibly bring some gusty winds, we are not looking for organized
severe storms into this evening.

Once this aforementioned MCV moves out of the FA later tngt, PoPs wl
be diminishing fm the west heading into early Sat. Expect patchy fog
and low clouds to return late tngt into early Sat. Conds wl improve
thereafter as W/NW winds return and allow the clouds to start
eroding. THis wl be short-lived as another weather maker brings
rain chcs back to the state on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

More of the same as we enter the work week with additional
shortwaves expected to move through the midsouth providing continued
chances of shower and thunderstorm activity. With MCS season upon
us, will need to monitor overnight activity Sunday night and
possibly Monday night.

Relief, for at least part of the state, is possible by mid week
where long term models are indicating a strong Upper Ridge to build
over the SW Conus. Modified the grids to better reflect this pattern
with higher POPs across the NE half of the forecast area.
Temperatures will generally be at or above seasonal normals during
the day, and slightly milder than average at night due to the
increased cloud cover and RH through the majority of the
overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Variety of flight conds wl cont into this evening as another MCV
works into AR fm the SW. Most locations wl see MVFR/IFR ceilings
for most of the aftn, with VFR conds confined to SE AR early on.
Sctd convection wl cont to dvlp durg the aftn, especially to the
north and east of the upper impulse. Bulk of rain chcs are fcst to
diminish fm the west starting later this evening. Expect low
clouds and patchy fog to form overnight, with IFR conds returning
to most locations. W/SW winds on Sat mrng wl allow for allow for
a slow improvement in flight conds late in the PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  82  66  87 /  80  30  10  30
Camden AR         66  85  67  86 /  70  20  10  40
Harrison AR       63  80  62  84 /  50  20   0  30
Hot Springs AR    65  85  66  86 /  50  20  10  40
Little Rock   AR  68  85  69  87 /  70  20  10  30
Monticello AR     68  85  69  87 /  80  30  20  40
Mount Ida AR      64  85  65  85 /  50  20  10  40
Mountain Home AR  63  80  62  86 /  70  20  10  20
Newport AR        67  83  67  87 /  90  40  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     68  85  68  86 /  80  30  20  40
Russellville AR   66  85  67  87 /  50  20  10  30
Searcy AR         65  83  66  87 /  80  30  10  30
Stuttgart AR      68  84  69  86 /  90  30  20  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...44