Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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229 FXUS64 KLZK 241939 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 239 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Latest satellite and surface observations indicate MVFR ceilings across northern and parts of central portions of the forecast area. Temperatures ranged from near 70 along the Missouri border, to the mid 80s in the south central potions. A weak boundary in northwest sections of the state will move southeast through Wednesday, and will promote widely scattered showers. A more focused precipitation event is expected for Thursday (and beyond), mainly for northeast sections. Upper level energy is forecast to form a cut-off low, then slowly drift southwestward. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tropical Storm (eventually Hurricane Helene) will move northward across the eastern GoM across the FL panhandle late this week, moving inland late Thursday. Once the tropical system moves inland, it will begin to interact with a system over the Southern Mississippi Valley region, eventually merging by early Saturday. Between Thursday and Monday, the system over the S MS valley region will begin pulling moisture from the tropical system and wrapping the moisture around its north side, to produce rain chances across much of AR. The majority of this rain is expected to occur Thursday and Friday, and northern portions of the state look to receive the higher accumulations. 2-3+ inches of rain are forecast across roughly the northern half of the state, with a trace to around 1.5 inches across the southern half. The system looks to move on, exiting the region to the east, on Monday. The forecast looks dry from late Monday through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will start out below average, with highs in the lower to mid 70s across the state. We`ll see a bit of a warming trend through the period, as temperatures return to near average, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s through early next week. Looking beyond the long-term forecast period, the Climate Prediciton Center favors near average temperatures from Sept 29 through Oct 3. Their precipitation forecast favors below average precipitation across the west and southwest part of the state, and slightly above average precipitation across the northeast corner of Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 MVFR ceilings will affect central and northern sections through 21z. Areas of MVFR visibility due to fog are expected late tonight, most noticeably across northern sections. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 77 57 77 / 20 20 10 30 Camden AR 63 80 59 80 / 30 40 10 10 Harrison AR 55 75 54 75 / 20 20 0 20 Hot Springs AR 63 82 60 81 / 50 20 0 10 Little Rock AR 65 80 62 81 / 50 30 10 20 Monticello AR 65 80 60 81 / 20 40 10 10 Mount Ida AR 59 81 56 81 / 50 20 0 10 Mountain Home AR 56 77 56 76 / 20 20 10 30 Newport AR 61 77 57 77 / 30 20 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 63 79 59 80 / 30 30 10 10 Russellville AR 60 81 58 80 / 40 10 10 10 Searcy AR 62 78 58 79 / 40 20 10 20 Stuttgart AR 64 78 59 79 / 30 30 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...53