169
FXUS64 KLZK 240520
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Earlier convection has left a rather complex surface pattern across
the state, with a number of pockets of low clouds mixed in with
clear patches. I suspect a number of residual outflow boundaries
remaining in place, although they are difficult to pinpoint. Arkansas
will remain in the warm sector tonight with considerable amounts
of moisture in place. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will continue,
with several minor shortwaves propagating to the northeast thru
the flow.

Another round of convection is expected overnight, which should
stabilize the atmosphere. Heading into tomorrow, the models are
forecasting considerable destabilization in the warm sector by
the afternoon hours, with afternoon CAPE values topping out
between 3500-4000 j/kg. However, there are a couple of issues with
that.

First, it`s difficult to determine how much overnight convection may
foul the atmosphere with low clouds and regions of highly stabilized
air. This will put a damper on the model forecasts of high
instability, at least in places. Also, the higher instability values
are all elevated, and a considerable cap may be in place across much
of the area. This will likely put a damper on some of the
convection tomorrow despite the model forecasts of high
instability.

At the surface, a cold front will be pushing out of the Plains into
the northwest part of the state tomorrow evening, and this will
likely act as a trigger for another round of overnight convection,
as the front slides into central Arkansas by Saturday morning and
stalls. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning may see quite a bit
of convection, and potentially heavy rainfall associated with the
front.

The key takeaway from this forecast is that there is high
confidence that several rounds of strong (possibly severe)
convection across the state thru the short term. The timing of
these systems is of considerably lower confidence. More than
likely, the bulk of the strongest thunderstorm activity will be
nocturnal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

An upper ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico to begin the long
term period with southwest flow over Arkansas and an upper low over
the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. An upper ridge then builds
over the western U.S. Monday night and brings northwest flow to
Arkansas Tuesday which continues through Thursday.

A cold front will be in the Plains Sunday and move through Arkansas
Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the
thunderstorms could be severe Sunday with large hail and
damaging winds. Small rain chances continue on Monday and a couple
of dry days begin on Tuesday with high pressure settling over the
region. A cold front will approach from the north late Wednesday and
a bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Near to
above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through the overnight hours will
additional showers and thunderstorms moving into the state from
LA/TX. These showers will likely affect central and southern
terminals but VCSH has been written into TAFs to express
uncertainity on timing and coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  67  87  72 /  50  50  20  50
Camden AR         89  69  89  71 /  10  40  10  10
Harrison AR       83  63  84  69 /  40  30  10  60
Hot Springs AR    86  68  87  70 /  30  60  20  30
Little Rock   AR  88  70  89  74 /  50  60  20  40
Monticello AR     90  71  90  74 /  20  50  30  10
Mount Ida AR      85  67  87  70 /  20  50  10  30
Mountain Home AR  82  64  84  69 /  50  30  10  50
Newport AR        85  69  86  72 /  50  50  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     89  70  89  73 /  40  60  30  20
Russellville AR   86  68  87  70 /  30  40  10  50
Searcy AR         86  67  87  71 /  60  60  20  40
Stuttgart AR      87  70  87  74 /  50  60  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...73