301
FXUS64 KLZK 220531
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An upper ridge is over the southeast part of the U.S. with an upper
low over the northern Plains. The upper low will move east as the
ridge in the south remains stationary. Several low pressure systems
will move across the northern U.S. through Thursday. The upper
ridge will be pushed south late Thursday.

Strong south winds continue across the area this afternoon ahead of
a cold front in Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
in eastern Oklahoma and will move into western Arkansas this
afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could be severe tonight
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. The northwest
half of the state is under a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.

Several short waves will move through the state through Thursday
bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Several
inches of rain are expected through this week and a Flood Watch may
be needed with the next forecast package depending on how the
storms act tonight.

Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to the mid 70s and in the 60s
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to upper 80s
and in the upper 70s to upper 80s Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Unsettled weather is likely to continue through the long term
portion of the forecast. Persistent H500 SW flow will remain in
place through the end of the period as ridging extends from northern
Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico while a series of cyclones rotate
east generally along the US/CA border.

Helping to focus the activity will be a nearly stationary front
oriented generally from SW to NE across Arkansas and surrounding
areas. A parade of mid-level disturbances will traverse the flow
aloft and aid in the development of rain and thunderstorms locally,
practically on a daily basis. Depending on available instability,
shear and timing of the H500 wave passage, a few rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible. A more robust H500 wave is
expected to move across the area from Thu PM to Fri AM which could
provide an opportunity for more organized TS development.

With several rounds of rain and thunderstorms expected across at
least the northern half of the state there is increased concern for
heavy rainfall potential. There is some indication that by the end
of the period the stalled front will finally sink south of the area
and the flow aloft will become more progressive. This could bring at
least somewhat of a break in persistent rain chances as well as
slightly cooler temperatures. Until that happens, above normal
temperatures remain likely through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across central and
southern terminals through about 22/12Z with additional SHRA/TSRA
moving in from eastern OK affecting all terminals Thursday morning
through the end of this TAF period. There is some uncertainty
regarding coverage of thunderstorms therefore VCTS/VCSH has been
written into TAFs for second round. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely
through much of the TAF period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will begin the forecast period and on
Tuesday evening impacting the northern, western, and central
terminals. Surface winds within the storms on Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night will be in excess of 30 knots. A lull will take place
across all terminals later during the early morning hours on
Wednesday before the next round of shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a stalled frontal boundary across Arkansas will
bring opportunity for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday
across all terminals. Flight category in terms of CIGS and VSBY will
drop as low as LIFR across the northern terminals for fog during the
early morning hours on Wednesday. CIGS will lower to MVFR with
intermittent IFR associated with stronger cells of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  66  81  67 /  70  70  70  70
Camden AR         85  69  87  68 /  70  60  40  40
Harrison AR       73  62  80  65 /  80  60  50  60
Hot Springs AR    83  66  84  67 /  80  80  50  60
Little Rock   AR  84  69  86  69 /  80  80  60  70
Monticello AR     86  70  87  71 /  60  60  40  40
Mount Ida AR      82  65  84  66 /  80  80  50  70
Mountain Home AR  76  63  80  65 /  80  60  50  60
Newport AR        82  68  83  68 /  70  70  70  70
Pine Bluff AR     85  69  86  69 /  70  70  50  50
Russellville AR   82  66  84  67 /  80  80  50  70
Searcy AR         83  66  84  66 /  70  70  60  70
Stuttgart AR      84  69  84  70 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...73