499
FXUS64 KMAF 010848
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Convection is only now winding down as radar shows the last storm
dissipating near Big Spring. Outflow from this convection has
spread across the entire Permian Basin bringing in a more stable
and cool airmass. However this may not do much good for
preventing severe weather this afternoon as models show moisture
pushing west against the mountains ahead of the cooler air. The
moist air will outrun the cooler and more stable air allowing for
afternoon heating and an approaching disturbance will destabilize
the atmosphere causing severe storms to develop in the mountains
and progress east. The storms should begin weakening with sunset
which should occur around the time they reach the Pecos River
valley and diminish in strength as they push east into the
central and eastern Permian Basin. So the main threat today will
be in areas that have not had much severe weather, or even
rainfall, so far this year. Strong winds and hail will be the main
threats and our western CWA is under a SLIGHT risk by SPC.

Zonal flow pushes dry air east and the dryline sets up in the
western Permian Basin on Sunday. Highest rain chances will be in
the eastern Basin where a few storms could again become severe
though coverage should be less than that seen the past couple of
days. Warmer temperatures are expected behind the dryline tomorrow
though highs should be near normal for this time of year.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Zonal flow is expected the early part of next week and this time
of year that means very hot and dry weather. Highs Monday through
Wednesday are expected to top off above the century mark for many
locations, with upper 90s seen elsewhere. A western U.S. ridge
amplifies late in the week which may allow for a weak cold front
to sneak into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Not only should
we see a break in the hot temperatures but there may also be a
return of rain chances as the front provides moisture and a source
of surface convergence to help create lift.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Ongoing TS near HOB is moving south towards MAF. It is not
expected to reach the terminal but will closely monitor. MVFR CIGs
are expected to develop for about 6 hours near 12Z and dissipating
before 18Z at most sites. TS is possible again near CNM/PEQ where
VCTS is in the TAFs and these storms could approach the other
sites as well.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  68  93  72 /  10  30  20  10
Carlsbad                 94  64 101  67 /  30  20  10   0
Dryden                   93  71  97  74 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton            94  68 100  70 /  40  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  64  92  67 /  30  20   0   0
Hobbs                    91  63  97  63 /  20  20  10   0
Marfa                    94  57  96  58 /  40  30  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     91  68  94  71 /  20  30  10   0
Odessa                   92  69  95  72 /  20  30  10   0
Wink                     96  69 102  68 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10