490
FXUS64 KMAF 020519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Another active afternoon is ahead today, with severe weather
possible region-wide. An outflow boundary from a nocturnal MCS that
developed over the high plains of eastern New Mexico and the Texas
South Plains and subsequently moved south has continued its slow
progression across the area, and has largely "washed out" early this
afternoon. This feature has aided in pushing the dryline westward,
with dewpoints in the 60s as far west as the western mountains (and
beyond). Concurrently, a shortwave in the quasi-zonal/weak
southwesterly flow aloft continues its gradual eastward progression,
evidenced by latest water vapor imagery and RUC analysis. This
feature will serve to increase ascent, with the first storms of the
day already beginning to develop over the Sacramento Mountains, with
towering cumulus observed over the Davis Mountains. CAMs have been
consistent with storms developing first over the higher terrain
where the aforementioned shortwave, differential heating, and help
from topography will produce what have the potential to be rapidly
strengthening storms this afternoon. All severe hazards will be
possible, including large to very large hail given steep lapse
rates, damaging wind gusts, and despite generally weak low-level
shear, supercells that manage to develop and propagate southeastward
will lend to a non-zero tornado threat. Given expected trends,
locations along and west of the Pecos River look to have the
greatest potential to see severe storms, with storms progressing
eastward through late evening, likely evolving into one or more
multicell clusters or line segments and transitioning to more of a
wind and heavy rain threat.

In the wake of storms tonight, low-level moisture will remain
elevated given persistent southerly to southeasterly surface flow.
Thus, lows will be on the mild side, and fairly close to normal for
late May, in the 60s for most and 70s along the Rio Grande and Lower
Trans Pecos. After a comparatively cooler day today, the heat cranks
back up on Sunday, with highs on target to top out in the middle 90s
to lower 100s for most. Even the mountains will climb into the 90s,
with Heat Advisory conditions likely to return for the higher
terrain of Southwest Texas as well as the Big Bend Region. Thus, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas Sunday afternoon and
early evening. In addition to the heat, yet another round of strong
to severe thunderstorms is possible, mainly across eastern areas in
closer vicinity to the eastward-moving dryline. Similar to previous
days, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.
Storms Sunday evening will quickly exit to the east, with a
quiescent night then to follow as lows drop into the 60s west and
lower 70s east.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Little change to the long term forecast as temperatures trend upward
for much of the coming week. Zonal flow across the region will keep
the area dry. Most locations reach into the upper 90s and low 100s
each afternoon with portions of the Big Bend reaching into the 110s.
A weak ridge develops and moves nearby Wednesday and into Thursday.
A weak cold front looks to be pushed through by the end of the week
that could bring temperatures closer to normal for a few and even
introduces a chance for showers.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to remain though brief MVFR
CIGs may appear at MAF for a few hours after 12Z. Modest and
occasionally gusty southerly winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71 101  70 105 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 66 101  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 102  72 106 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            69 104  69 106 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  99  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    57  96  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     71 101  69 104 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   72 101  70 104 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     68 104  67 107 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster
     County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10